Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Nicolas MejiaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Nicolas Mejia have met 3 times since 2021; Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Lima Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Carabelli leads 2–0. Carabelli has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 6 sets to Mejia's 0. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Cancun Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Mejia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Nicolas Mejia | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 33% | 21/63 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 48% | 12/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 62% | 21/34 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 62% | 21/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 3, Mejia 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Mejia
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Nicolas Mejia.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 20, 2026
Cancun Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 9, 2022
Lima Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Sep 28, 2021
Lima Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Mejia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Nicolas Mejia | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | 2.91 |
| ROI % | -47.1% | +30.8% |
| Units P/L | -4.24u | +4.00u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 5,846 mi · 9,409 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | FRA → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Carabelli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Mejia's 50%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 75 61 | L 46 46 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 63 | W 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Michael Zheng
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Chun-Hsin Tseng
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Ugo Blanchet
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tallon Griekspoor
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NED-COL 4-0 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Liam Draxl
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Adam Walton
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–66 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 59% |
| Sets won | 47% | 54% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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