Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel MeridaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida have met 2 times since 2026; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2026 on grass. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 2 sets to Merida's 2. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Wimbledon (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Merida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Daniel Merida | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 60% | 21/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 45% | 25/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 44% | 14/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 68% | 21/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Merida
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 708 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 30, 2026
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 128
Jun 29, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Merida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Daniel Merida | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 3–2 |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | 1.98 |
| ROI % | -47.1% | +10.6% |
| Units P/L | -4.24u | +0.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Merida has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Carabelli's 25%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 46 26 | W 57 63 63 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | W 67 62 64 64 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 67 16 26 | W 64 64 62 |
| Learner Tien | L 67 36 | L 36 26 |
| Titouan Droguet | L 06 63 46 | W |
| Martin Damm | W 76 63 | L 36 26 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 46 76 26 | L 36 75 26 |
| Mariano Navone | W 62 75 | L 26 64 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alejandro Tabilo
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Andrey Rublev
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Marton Fucsovics
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marin Cilic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Ugo Humbert
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–61 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 61% |
| Sets won | 47% | 58% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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