Cameron Norrie vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Cameron Norrie and Mackenzie McDonald have met 4 times since 2017; Cameron Norrie leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Cary in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Norrie leads 4–0. Norrie has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Norrie has taken 8 sets to McDonald's 0. Their most recent meeting: Cameron Norrie won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Norrie | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Cameron Norrie | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 15/29 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 9/22 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 23/51 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 14/28 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 13/22 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 14/31 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 22/25 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 15/25 | 74% | 17/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Norrie 4, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Norrie
🎯 Baseliner
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 460 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Cameron Norrie.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 7, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 28, 2019
Acapulco
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 12, 2017
Champaign
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 12, 2017
Cary
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Norrie | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Cameron Norrie | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Norrie | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–5 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.95 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | -8.3% | -24.7% |
| Units P/L | -0.99u | -2.72u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Norrie | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 1 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Norrie has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs McDonald's 30%).
| Opponent | Norrie | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | W 57 76 61 | L 26 26 36 |
| Bernard Tomic | W 61 60 | W 75 76 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 61 | L 62 16 26 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 57 76 46 | L 46 57 |
| Christopher O'Connell | L 67 46 | W 63 64 64 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W 64 64 | W 36 63 62 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 64 62 | L 36 67 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 36 57 | L 26 06 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 62 46 76 | L 46 67 |
| Arthur Cazaux | W 67 76 62 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Dino Prizmic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Fils
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Alex de Minaur
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Ignacio Buse
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Denis Shapovalov
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Bernard Tomic
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–55 matches
| Metric | Norrie | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 49% |
| Sets won | 53% | 48% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Norrie | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Norrie | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
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