Brandon Nakashima vs Jesper de JongPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Jesper de Jong have met 2 times since 2024; Brandon Nakashima leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Rome in 2024 on clay. Nakashima has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 5 sets to Jong's 3. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | de Jong | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Jesper de Jong | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 44% | 11/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 16/55 | 42% | 22/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 20/37 | 27% | 9/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 15/30 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 55% | 11/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, de Jong 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Jong
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 24, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 7, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Jong | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Jesper de Jong | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 63% | 10/16 |
| 10 or more | 43% | 9/21 | 25% | 4/16 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 3/21 | 19% | 3/16 |
| 20 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–5 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 2.10 |
| ROI % | +38.6% | -9.7% |
| Units P/L | +8.10u | -1.55u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 13 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,731 mi · 2,785 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Jong's 20%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Nuno Borges | W 63 67 63 | L 36 06 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 67 76 61 | L 57 26 67 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 64 | L 62 57 46 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 76 36 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | L 26 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 63 | L 16 26 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 67 75 46 | L 67 46 16 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 75 16 67 67 | L 46 57 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 63 75 | L 46 46 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 46 06 | W 46 76 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Adam Walton
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Hugo Gaston
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Dane Sweeny
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Alex Michelsen
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Vilius Gaubas
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–61 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 49% |
| Sets won | 59% | 46% |
| Games won | 53% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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