Aryna Sabalenka vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–2
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2017; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Tashkent in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 6 sets to Maria's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Shenzhen (2019).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 39% | 13/33 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 1, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 2, 2019
Shenzhen
H Hard · Round of 32
Feb 10, 2018
Fed Cup WG R1: BLR vs GER
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 28, 2017
Tashkent
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +2.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Maria's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | W 61 67 64 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 60 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 26 57 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | L 64 67 16 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 16 26 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | L 57 46 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | W 64 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 76 57 06 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | W 64 63 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | L 26 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 50% |
| Sets won | 79% | 52% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 2 | 0 |
| BJK Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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