Aryna Sabalenka vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–2
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleAryna Sabalenka and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2017; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Tashkent in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 6 sets to Maria's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Shenzhen (2019).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 45% | 14/31 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 1, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 2, 2019
Shenzhen
H Hard · Round of 32
Feb 10, 2018
Fed Cup WG R1: BLR vs GER
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 28, 2017
Tashkent
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | UKR → TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Maria's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 46 36 | L 76 26 36 |
| Renata Zarazua | W 61 63 | L 46 46 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 64 63 | L 76 36 26 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 76 57 06 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 63 64 | W 64 63 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 46 61 62 |
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | W 61 67 64 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 60 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 26 57 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | L 64 67 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 53% |
| Sets won | 79% | 55% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 2 | 0 |
| BJK Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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