Aryna Sabalenka vs Sofia KeninPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 8–4
🇺🇸Sofia Kenin
#110 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin have met 5 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Wuhan in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 8 sets to Kenin's 4. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Kenin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Sofia Kenin | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 42% | 15/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 52% | 14/27 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 43% | 6/14 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Kenin 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Kenin
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 54% vs 🎯 Baseliner across 330 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the baseliner's precise groundstrokes.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 11, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 1, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
May 11, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 10, 2018
Tianjin
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 27, 2018
Wuhan
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Kenin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Sofia Kenin | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 67% | 4/6 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 3–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 3.27 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | -32.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | -2.94u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 2 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Kenin's 20%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 64 36 57 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | L 67 36 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | W 61 63 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | L 26 64 67 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 16 06 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | W 64 64 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | L 36 36 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 61 36 36 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 57 57 |
| Himeno Sakatsume | W 64 62 | L 26 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Marta Kostyuk
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Eva Lys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Emma Navarro
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Amanda Anisimova
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Petra Marcinko
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Daria Snigur
Eastbourne
Jun 20
Viktorija Golubic
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · 1st Round
Jun 16
Viktorija Golubic
Nottingham
Jun 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 36–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 33% |
| Sets won | 79% | 38% |
| Games won | 59% | 44% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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