Aryna Sabalenka vs Sofia KeninPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 8–4
🇺🇸Sofia Kenin
#125 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
4Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin have met 5 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Wuhan in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 8 sets to Kenin's 4. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Kenin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Sofia Kenin | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 41% | 11/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 41% | 15/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 48% | 13/27 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 40% | 6/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Kenin 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Kenin
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs 🎯 Baseliner across 404 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the baseliner's precise groundstrokes.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 11, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 1, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
May 11, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 10, 2018
Tianjin
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 27, 2018
Wuhan
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Kenin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Sofia Kenin | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 2–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 3.54 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -63.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -5.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,246 mi · 2,005 km |
| Route | ROU | POR → ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Kenin's 20%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 63 64 | L 06 36 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 36 16 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 64 36 57 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | L 67 36 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | W 61 63 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | L 26 64 67 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | W 64 64 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | L 36 36 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 61 36 36 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 57 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Kamilla Rakhimova
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Ashlyn Krueger
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alina Charaeva
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Venus Williams
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Marta Kostyuk
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Eva Lys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Lucrezia Stefanini
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 27% |
| Sets won | 79% | 35% |
| Games won | 59% | 44% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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