Aryna Sabalenka vs Sloane StephensPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 10–3
🇺🇸Sloane Stephens
#208 · 33 yrs · Right-Handed
4Aryna Sabalenka and Sloane Stephens have met 5 times since 2017; Aryna Sabalenka leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at Fed Cup WG F: USA vs BLR in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 4–0. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 10 sets to Stephens's 3. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Stephens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Sloane Stephens | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 71% | 5/7 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 28% | 5/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 28% | 7/25 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 20% | 1/5 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 47% | 9/19 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 50% | 1/2 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 56% | 5/9 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Stephens 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Stephens
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 61% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,327 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 12, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 4, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Oct 13, 2022
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2021
Rogers Cup - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 11, 2017
Fed Cup WG F: USA vs BLR
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Stephens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Sloane Stephens | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 80% | 8/10 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 3.00 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +8.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +0.83u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 4 |
| Events | 2 | 4 |
| Matches | 5 | 7 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 1,730 mi · 2,784 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | ECU → CAN → POL → ESP |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Stephens's 25%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | L 36 26 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 57 57 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | W 62 64 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Philly Open - Philadelphia · 1st Round
Aug 25
Marta Kostyuk
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anastasia Potapova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Sinja Kraus
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Belinda Bencic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Solana Sierra
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Darja Vidmanova
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Yuliia Starodubtseva
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 28% |
| Sets won | 79% | 33% |
| Games won | 59% | 42% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| BJK Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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