Aryna Sabalenka vs Sloane StephensPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 10–3
🇺🇸Sloane Stephens
#133 · 33 yrs · Right-Handed
4w4Aryna Sabalenka and Sloane Stephens have met 5 times since 2017; Aryna Sabalenka leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at Fed Cup WG F: USA vs BLR in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 4–0. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 10 sets to Stephens's 3. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Stephens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Sloane Stephens | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 72% | 13/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 25% | 5/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 26% | 10/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 44% | 4/9 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 52% | 14/27 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 78% | 14/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 72% | 13/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Stephens 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Stephens
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 60% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,462 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 12, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 4, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Oct 13, 2022
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2021
Rogers Cup - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 11, 2017
Fed Cup WG F: USA vs BLR
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Stephens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Sloane Stephens | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.98 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | +21.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | +3.43u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | UKR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Stephens's 14%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Renata Zarazua | W 61 63 | L 62 36 26 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | L 67 46 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 16 57 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 62 64 | L 46 16 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | L 36 26 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | W 62 64 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Peyton Stearns
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Janice Tjen
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Carole Monnet
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Marta Kostyuk
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Clara Tauson
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Philly Open - Philadelphia · 1st Round
Aug 25
Marta Kostyuk
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anastasia Potapova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 38–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 47% |
| Sets won | 79% | 48% |
| Games won | 59% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| BJK Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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