Aryna Sabalenka vs Renata ZarazuaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 4–0
🇲🇽Renata Zarazua
#85 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Renata Zarazua have met 2 times since 2025; Aryna Sabalenka leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Brisbane in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 4 sets to Zarazua's 0. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at China Open - Beijing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Zarazua | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Renata Zarazua | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 60% | 25/42 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 26% | 9/34 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 34% | 26/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 44% | 17/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 35% | 11/31 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 66% | 25/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Zarazua 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Zarazua
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs 🎯 Baseliner across 404 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the baseliner's precise groundstrokes.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Oct 2, 2026
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 1, 2025
Brisbane
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Zarazua | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Renata Zarazua | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 47% | 9/19 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 9–10 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.94 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -0.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -0.06u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 7 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | POR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Zarazua's 20%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 16 46 |
| Polina Iatcenko | W 61 61 | L 64 46 67 |
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | L 16 26 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 64 61 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | L 16 26 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 46 16 |
| Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah | W 64 61 | L 46 62 46 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | W 36 63 64 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 76 64 | L 16 16 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rebecca Sramkova
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · Semifinals
Oct 10
Katarina Zavatska
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Darya Astakhova
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Han Shi
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · 1st Round
Oct 6
Aryna Sabalenka
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Anna Bondar
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Anna Bondar
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Caroline Dolehide
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–77 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 56% |
| Sets won | 79% | 53% |
| Games won | 59% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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