Aryna Sabalenka vs Polona HercogPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇸🇮Polona Hercog
#233 · 35 yrs · Right-Handed
5wAryna Sabalenka and Polona Hercog have met 3 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Lugano in 2018 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 4 sets to Hercog's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Hercog | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Polona Hercog | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 69% | 18/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 31% | 13/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 67% | 8/12 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 91% | 21/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 78% | 18/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Hercog 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Hercog
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 7, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 25, 2018
Istanbul
C Clay · Round of 32
Apr 12, 2018
Lugano
C Clay · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 1–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.39 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | -54.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | -1.62u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Laura Pigossi
W100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas · 1st Round
Jul 29
Dalila Jakupovic
Generali Open Ladies - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 13
Bianca Andreescu
Wimbledon
Jun 23
Kajsa Rinaldo Persson
W75 Zagreb · Quarterfinals
May 15
Ayla Aksu
W75 Zagreb · Round of 16
May 14
Lucrezia Stefanini
W75 Zagreb · Round of 32
May 13
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo
W35 Platja d'Aro · Quarterfinals
May 8
Miriana Tona
W35 Platja d'Aro · 2nd Round
May 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 62% |
| Sets won | 79% | 59% |
| Games won | 59% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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