Aryna Sabalenka vs Polona HercogPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇸🇮Polona Hercog
#224 · 35 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Polona Hercog have met 3 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Lugano in 2018 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 4 sets to Hercog's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Hercog | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Polona Hercog | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 68% | 23/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 36% | 8/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 34% | 19/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 49% | 19/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 69% | 11/16 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 74% | 23/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Hercog 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Hercog
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 7, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 25, 2018
Istanbul
C Clay · Round of 32
Apr 12, 2018
Lugano
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Hercog | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Polona Hercog | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 2–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.38 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -47.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -3.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | SRB → ECU → AUT |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Hercog's 0%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alena Kovackova
W50 Burgas · 1st Round
Oct 6
Lisa Pigato
W75 Quinta do Lago · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Naiktha Bains
W75 Quinta do Lago · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Ayana Akli
W75 Quinta do Lago · 1st Round
Sep 30
Leyre Romero Gormaz
Tolentino Open - Tolentino · 1st Round
Sep 21
Julie Struplova
Zavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana · 1st Round
Sep 14
Moyuka Uchijima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Laura Pigossi
W100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas · 1st Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 61% |
| Sets won | 79% | 58% |
| Games won | 59% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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