Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra AndreevaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 10–4
🇷🇺Mirra Andreeva
#5 · 19 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva have met 6 times since 2023; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Andreeva leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 10 sets to Andreeva's 4. Their most recent meeting: Mirra Andreeva won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Andreeva | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Mirra Andreeva | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 74% | 31/42 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 36% | 21/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 56% | 29/52 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 80% | 4/5 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 83% | 34/41 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 76% | 31/41 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 4, Andreeva 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Andreeva
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Mar 16, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jan 19, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 4, 2025
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 5, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 1, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 1, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Andreeva | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Mirra Andreeva | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 7–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.38 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | -15.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | -1.65u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Sabalenka and Andreeva posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 64 06 26 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | L 36 46 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 57 62 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 61 67 61 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | L 64 57 46 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | W 63 62 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | W 60 63 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 64 61 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 64 26 46 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | W 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Marta Kostyuk
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Janice Tjen
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Oleksandra Oliynykova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Karolina Pliskova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Barbora Krejcikova
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Magda Linette
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 72% |
| Sets won | 79% | 69% |
| Games won | 59% | 58% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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