Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra AndreevaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 10–4
🇷🇺Mirra Andreeva
#3 · 19 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva have met 6 times since 2023; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Andreeva leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 10 sets to Andreeva's 4. Their most recent meeting: Mirra Andreeva won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Andreeva | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Mirra Andreeva | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 74% | 37/50 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 33% | 22/67 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 58% | 35/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 83% | 5/6 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 85% | 40/47 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 79% | 37/47 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 4, Andreeva 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Andreeva
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Mar 16, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jan 19, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 4, 2025
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 5, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 1, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 1, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Andreeva | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Mirra Andreeva | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 67% | 12/18 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 33% | 6/18 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.31 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -16.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -2.96u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 8 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km |
| Route | ROU | SGP → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Andreeva's 60%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 57 46 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 46 36 | W 62 62 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 76 76 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 57 16 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 62 67 26 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | W 57 64 75 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | W 57 64 63 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 64 06 26 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 57 62 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 61 67 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 11
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Ekaterina Alexandrova
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Polina Kudermetova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Yue Yuan
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Leylah Fernandez
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–67 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 75% |
| Sets won | 79% | 70% |
| Games won | 59% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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