Aryna Sabalenka vs Mccartney KesslerPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 4–0
🇺🇸Mccartney Kessler
#95 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
7wAryna Sabalenka and Mccartney Kessler have met 2 times since 2025; Aryna Sabalenka leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2025 on hard. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 4 sets to Kessler's 0. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Kessler | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Mccartney Kessler | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 67% | 14/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 27% | 6/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 30% | 13/43 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 50% | 12/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 37% | 7/19 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 80% | 16/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 70% | 14/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Kessler 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Kessler
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Mccartney Kessler are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jul 1, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Mar 8, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Kessler | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Mccartney Kessler | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 60% | 3/5 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 40% | 2/5 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/5 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 1–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -77.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -3.85u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Kessler's 10%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Renata Zarazua | W 61 63 | L 46 16 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 06 26 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 75 36 46 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | L 26 26 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | L 36 46 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | L 36 16 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | W 63 76 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 67 16 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | L 16 16 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 67 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Ekaterina Alexandrova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Caty Mcnally
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Anna Kalinskaya
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Cadence Brace
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 29
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Oleksandra Oliynykova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Madison Keys
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 49% |
| Sets won | 79% | 48% |
| Games won | 59% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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