Aryna Sabalenka vs Marie BouzkovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 7–2
🇨🇿Marie Bouzkova
#26 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Marie Bouzkova have met 4 times since 2023; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 7 sets to Bouzkova's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Wimbledon - London (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Bouzkova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Marie Bouzkova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 84% | 26/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 24% | 5/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 19% | 10/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 66% | 21/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 29% | 5/17 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 84% | 26/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Bouzkova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Bouzkova
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 2, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 3, 2025
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 3, 2024
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 26, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Bouzkova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Marie Bouzkova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 89% | 16/18 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 39% | 7/18 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 6% | 1/18 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.78 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +9.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +1.50u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Bouzkova's 60%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 36 26 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 76 76 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 61 36 62 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 75 75 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 62 | W 46 76 64 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | W 62 62 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | L 36 57 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | W 64 63 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 76 64 | L 57 26 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | L 26 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Iva Jovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Lucrezia Stefanini
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Taylor Townsend
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Tereza Valentova
Livesport Prague Open - Prague · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Carol Young Suh Lee
Livesport Prague Open - Prague · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Livesport Prague Open - Prague · 1st Round
Jul 20
Elise Mertens
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 60% |
| Sets won | 79% | 59% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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