Aryna Sabalenka vs Marie BouzkovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 7–2
🇨🇿Marie Bouzkova
#28 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Marie Bouzkova have met 4 times since 2023; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 7 sets to Bouzkova's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Wimbledon - London (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Bouzkova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Marie Bouzkova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 27% | 6/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 21% | 11/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 64% | 21/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 35% | 6/17 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 90% | 27/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 83% | 25/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Bouzkova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Bouzkova
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,247 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 2, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 3, 2025
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 3, 2024
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 26, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Bouzkova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Marie Bouzkova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 7–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.12 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -15.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -1.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 654 mi · 1,053 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Bouzkova's 60%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 67 64 57 |
| Renata Zarazua | W 61 63 | W 62 75 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 64 63 | L 67 57 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | W 62 62 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 36 26 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 76 76 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 61 36 62 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 75 75 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | L 36 57 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Clara Tauson
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Kimberly Birrell
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Iga Swiatek
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Harriet Dart
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Elsa Jacquemot
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Iva Jovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 58% |
| Sets won | 79% | 57% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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