Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia BronzettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–0
🇮🇹Lucia Bronzetti
#135 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
4wAryna Sabalenka and Lucia Bronzetti have met 3 times since 2024; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Brisbane International - Brisbane in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 6 sets to Bronzetti's 0. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Bronzetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Lucia Bronzetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 30% | 9/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 29% | 17/59 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 48% | 15/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 52% | 12/23 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 86% | 25/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Bronzetti 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Bronzetti
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,380 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 10, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 28, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 3, 2024
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Bronzetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Lucia Bronzetti | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 67% | 16/24 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 8% | 2/24 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 0% | 0/24 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/24 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/24 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/24 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 20–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.56 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +9.2% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +2.49u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 2 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | MKD |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Bronzetti's 17%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | L 46 57 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | L 46 46 |
| Teodora Kostovic | W 62 63 | W 64 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 36 75 46 |
| Himeno Sakatsume | W 64 62 | L 67 26 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 75 46 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Laura Samson
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Semifinals
Aug 1
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Alevtina Ibragimova
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Miriana Tona
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · 1st Round
Jul 28
Fiona Ferro
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo · Semifinals
Jul 25
Yasmine Kabbaj
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Dalila Spiteri
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Ilary Pistola
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo · 1st Round
Jul 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 49% |
| Sets won | 79% | 50% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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