Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia BronzettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–0
🇮🇹Lucia Bronzetti
#135 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
3Aryna Sabalenka and Lucia Bronzetti have met 3 times since 2024; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Brisbane International - Brisbane in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 6 sets to Bronzetti's 0. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Bronzetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Lucia Bronzetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 32% | 10/31 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 33% | 21/64 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 47% | 16/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 52% | 13/25 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 88% | 29/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 67% | 22/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Bronzetti 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Bronzetti
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 10, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 28, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 3, 2024
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Bronzetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Lucia Bronzetti | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 63% | 10/16 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 13% | 2/16 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.65 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -25.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -3.85u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | GER → ESP |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Bronzetti's 13%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | L 63 36 46 |
| Polina Iatcenko | W 61 61 | L 26 63 36 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 62 64 | L 16 67 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | L 46 46 |
| Teodora Kostovic | W 62 63 | W 64 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 36 75 46 |
| Himeno Sakatsume | W 64 62 | L 67 26 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 75 46 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Fiona Crawley
Samsun Open - Samsun · 1st Round
Oct 5
Lois Boisson
Adana Open - Adana · 1st Round
Sep 29
Irene Burillo
ATIK Antalya Open - Antalya · 1st Round
Sep 7
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Luisina Giovannini
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Laura Samson
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Semifinals
Aug 1
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Alevtina Ibragimova
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–64 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 52% |
| Sets won | 79% | 51% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Bronzetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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