Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila SamsonovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 10–4
🇷🇺Liudmila Samsonova
#43 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Liudmila Samsonova have met 6 times since 2022; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 4–2. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 10 sets to Samsonova's 4. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Wuhan Open - Wuhan (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Samsonova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Liudmila Samsonova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 60% | 12/20 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 46% | 13/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 4, Samsonova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Samsonova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 9, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 13, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 17, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 11, 2023
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 4, 2023
Adelaide International 1 - Adelaide
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 19, 2022
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Samsonova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Liudmila Samsonova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 53% | 8/15 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 40% | 6/15 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | +20.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | +3.35u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 7,530 mi · 12,118 km |
| Route | ROU | UKR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Samsonova's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 64 | L 64 46 26 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | L 67 26 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | W 46 62 75 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | W 76 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 46 64 46 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 36 67 |
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | W 62 62 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 62 46 16 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 61 75 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Linda Fruhvirtova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Peyton Stearns
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Semifinals
Sep 19
Kayla Day
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Marta Kostyuk
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 17
Elsa Jacquemot
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 15
Maya Joint
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 45% |
| Sets won | 79% | 50% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
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