Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila SamsonovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 10–4
🇷🇺Liudmila Samsonova
#45 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Liudmila Samsonova have met 6 times since 2022; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 4–2. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 10 sets to Samsonova's 4. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Wuhan Open - Wuhan (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Samsonova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Liudmila Samsonova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 72% | 13/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 52% | 12/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 41% | 17/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 50% | 11/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 53% | 10/19 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 25% | 2/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 67% | 16/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 54% | 13/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 4, Samsonova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Samsonova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 9, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 13, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 17, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 11, 2023
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 4, 2023
Adelaide International 1 - Adelaide
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 19, 2022
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Samsonova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Liudmila Samsonova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 12/14 | 75% | 12/16 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 63% | 10/16 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–5 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.26 |
| ROI % | -26.5% | +11.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.97u | +1.81u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Samsonova's 30%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | W 62 62 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 62 46 16 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 46 64 46 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 61 75 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 36 46 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | W 36 64 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 67 16 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 36 67 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | L 57 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Yulia Putintseva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Maya Joint
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Barbora Krejcikova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Janice Tjen
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Diana Shnaider
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Xinyu Wang
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 44% |
| Sets won | 79% | 48% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
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