Aryna Sabalenka vs Lesia TsurenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇺🇦Lesia Tsurenko
Unranked · 37 yrs · Right-Handed
99wAryna Sabalenka and Lesia Tsurenko have met 3 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Hobart in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 4 sets to Tsurenko's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Tsurenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Lesia Tsurenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | — | ||
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Tsurenko 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Tsurenko
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 19, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 6, 2019
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 12, 2018
Hobart
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | - |
| ROI % | -18.6% | - |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Sinja Kraus
Billie Jean King Cup, PO, UKR-AUT 3-2 · Rubber 3
Nov 17
Tamira Paszek
Billie Jean King Cup, PO, UKR-AUT 3-2 · Rubber 1
Nov 16
Rebecca Marino
Dow Tennis Classic - Midland · Semifinals
Nov 9
Karina Miller
Dow Tennis Classic - Midland · Quarterfinals
Nov 8
Jil Teichmann
Dow Tennis Classic - Midland · 2nd Round
Nov 6
Tamara Zidansek
Dow Tennis Classic - Midland · 1st Round
Nov 4
Katie Boulter
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 8
Viktoriya Tomova
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | - |
| Sets won | 79% | - |
| Games won | 59% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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