Aryna Sabalenka vs Lesia TsurenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇺🇦Lesia Tsurenko
Unranked · 37 yrs · Right-Handed
93wAryna Sabalenka and Lesia Tsurenko have met 3 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Hobart in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 4 sets to Tsurenko's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Tsurenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Lesia Tsurenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | — | ||
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Tsurenko 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Tsurenko
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,380 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 19, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 6, 2019
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 12, 2018
Hobart
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | - |
| ROI % | -23.4% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Sinja Kraus
Billie Jean King Cup, PO, UKR-AUT 3-2 · Rubber 3
Nov 17
Tamira Paszek
Billie Jean King Cup, PO, UKR-AUT 3-2 · Rubber 1
Nov 16
Rebecca Marino
Dow Tennis Classic - Midland · Semifinals
Nov 9
Karina Miller
Dow Tennis Classic - Midland · Quarterfinals
Nov 8
Jil Teichmann
Dow Tennis Classic - Midland · 2nd Round
Nov 6
Tamara Zidansek
Dow Tennis Classic - Midland · 1st Round
Nov 4
Katie Boulter
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 8
Viktoriya Tomova
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | - |
| Sets won | 79% | - |
| Games won | 59% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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