Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey BaptistePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇺🇸Hailey Baptiste
#34 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed
14w3Aryna Sabalenka and Hailey Baptiste have met 2 times since 2026; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2026 on hard. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 3 sets to Baptiste's 2. Their most recent meeting: Hailey Baptiste won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Baptiste | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Hailey Baptiste | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 63% | 20/32 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 78% | 14/18 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 73% | 11/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 1, Baptiste 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Baptiste
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Apr 28, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Mar 25, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Baptiste |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | - |
| ROI % | -26.5% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.97u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Baptiste |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Baptiste's 50%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Baptiste |
|---|---|---|
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | L 63 67 36 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 63 64 |
| Teodora Kostovic | W 62 63 | W 46 63 64 |
| Teodora Kostovic | W 62 63 | W 46 63 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 46 64 67 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 67 76 62 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | L 16 26 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | W 75 63 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 63 06 36 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 67 62 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Barbora Krejcikova
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 24
Elina Svitolina
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 3rd Round
May 10
Simona Waltert
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 2nd Round
May 8
Mirra Andreeva
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · Semifinals
Apr 30
Aryna Sabalenka
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · Quarterfinals
Apr 28
Belinda Bencic
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 4th Round
Apr 27
Jasmine Paolini
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 3rd Round
Apr 25
Kaitlin Quevedo
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 2nd Round
Apr 23
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 32–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Baptiste |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 59% |
| Sets won | 79% | 55% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Baptiste |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Baptiste |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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