Aryna Sabalenka vs Dayana YastremskaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 2–4
🇺🇦Dayana Yastremska
#103 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Dayana Yastremska have met 3 times since 2019; Dayana Yastremska leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Strasbourg in 2019 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 2 sets to Yastremska's 4. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Yastremska | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Dayana Yastremska | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 36% | 15/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 65% | 13/20 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 61% | 14/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 1, Yastremska 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Yastremska
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Dayana Yastremska are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 12, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 17, 2020
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Semifinals
May 25, 2019
Strasbourg
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Yastremska | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Dayana Yastremska | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 67% | 4/6 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -14.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -0.88u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Yastremska's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | W 63 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 46 76 36 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 75 26 36 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | W 61 62 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 76 76 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | L 36 06 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 63 62 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | L 46 46 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | L 36 76 26 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 36 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Sinja Kraus
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maja Chwalinska
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Caty Mcnally
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Janice Tjen
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Tatjana Maria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Aoi Ito
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 45% |
| Sets won | 79% | 48% |
| Games won | 59% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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