Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 5 times since 2015; Andrey Rublev leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Miami in 2015 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 3–0. On clay courts Rublev leads 2–0. Rublev has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 10 sets to Busta's 4. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/42 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 17% | 1/6 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 1, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Aug 16, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 27, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 24, 2019
Hamburg
C Clay · Semifinals
May 1, 2015
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 26, 2015
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 36% | 4/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 18% | 2/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 40%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Machac | W 64 63 | W 63 62 |
| Valentin Royer | W 63 64 | L 61 57 26 |
| Luca Van Assche | L 63 36 46 | L 36 64 26 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 46 64 | L 26 16 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 62 | W 57 75 75 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 76 67 63 | W 63 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 61 16 63 76 | L 63 57 57 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 36 67 64 62 36 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 64 64 | L 36 36 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 64 64 | W 46 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Luciano Darderi
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 18
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–65 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 65% |
| Sets won | 56% | 60% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 3 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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