Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 5 times since 2015; Andrey Rublev leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Miami in 2015 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 3–0. On clay courts Rublev leads 2–0. Rublev has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 10 sets to Busta's 4. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 17/47 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 1, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Aug 16, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 27, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 24, 2019
Hamburg
C Clay · Semifinals
May 1, 2015
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 26, 2015
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 15/18 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 44% | 8/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 11% | 2/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–7 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -14.8% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.67u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 46 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Mariano Navone | W 64 75 | W 46 75 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 57 46 | L 46 26 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 57 76 | L 46 46 |
| Tomas Machac | W 64 63 | W 63 62 |
| Valentin Royer | W 63 64 | L 61 57 26 |
| Luca Van Assche | L 63 36 46 | L 36 64 26 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 62 | W 57 75 75 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 76 67 63 | W 63 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 61 16 63 76 | L 63 57 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–58 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 62% |
| Sets won | 58% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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