Andrey Rublev vs Hugo GastonPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Hugo Gaston have met 2 times since 2025; Andrey Rublev leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Toronto in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 2–0. Rublev has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 4 sets to Gaston's 1. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Hugo Gaston | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 66% | 21/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 17/47 | 36% | 20/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | 47% | 16/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 83% | 24/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 1, Gaston 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 27, 2026
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 30, 2025
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Hugo Gaston | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 84% | 16/19 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 47% | 9/19 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/19 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–7 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.49 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | -12.3% | -2.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.33u | -0.30u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 103 mi · 165 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Gaston's 30%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | L 57 46 | L 46 26 46 |
| Jaime Faria | W 64 63 46 75 | W 46 76 64 |
| Luca Van Assche | L 63 36 46 | L 46 46 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 64 63 | W 76 61 |
| Timofey Skatov | W 61 61 | W 76 76 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 76 67 63 | L 16 36 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 63 76 | L 16 46 26 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 36 67 36 | L 62 46 26 16 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 63 67 63 75 | L 16 26 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 26 46 | L |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–60 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 57% |
| Sets won | 58% | 54% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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