Andrey Rublev vs Daniel MeridaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Daniel Merida have met 1 time since 2026; Daniel Merida leads 1–0. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 1 sets to Merida's 3. Their most recent meeting: Daniel Merida won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Merida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Daniel Merida | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 60% | 21/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 17/47 | 45% | 25/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | 44% | 14/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 68% | 21/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Merida
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 2, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Merida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Daniel Merida | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 5 or more | 84% | 16/19 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 10 or more | 47% | 9/19 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/19 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–7 | 3–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.49 | 1.98 |
| ROI % | -12.3% | +10.6% |
| Units P/L | -2.33u | +0.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 8 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Merida's 40%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | L 57 46 | L 63 36 57 26 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 46 64 | W 57 63 63 |
| Otto Virtanen | W 67 67 60 62 76 | W 76 57 75 |
| Learner Tien | W 64 64 | L 36 26 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 67 63 | W 63 63 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 76 67 63 | W 63 57 63 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 61 16 63 76 | L 46 36 62 30 |
| Ben Shelton | L 67 36 | L 36 36 46 |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | W 36 76 62 | L 46 62 36 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 63 76 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alejandro Tabilo
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Andrey Rublev
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Marton Fucsovics
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marin Cilic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Ugo Humbert
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–61 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 61% |
| Sets won | 58% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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