Andrea Pellegrino vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrea Pellegrino and Camilo Ugo Carabelli have met 3 times since 2021; Andrea Pellegrino leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Biella 7 Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Pellegrino leads 2–1. Across all meetings Pellegrino has taken 4 sets to Carabelli's 4. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Campinas Challenger (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pellegrino | Ugo Carabelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrea Pellegrino | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 15/29 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 54% | 13/24 | 32% | 7/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 27/53 | 36% | 16/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 11/27 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 73% | 16/22 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 10/14 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 19/24 | 82% | 14/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 15/24 | 76% | 13/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pellegrino 0, Ugo Carabelli 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pellegrino
🏹 Frontrunner
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 166 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 8, 2023
Campinas Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Jun 8, 2021
Lyon Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Jun 1, 2021
Biella 7 Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pellegrino | Carabelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrea Pellegrino | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 67% | 6/9 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 67% | 6/9 |
| 10 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pellegrino | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–6 | 2–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 3.43 |
| ROI % | -27.4% | -47.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.74u | -4.24u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pellegrino | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 3 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km |
| Route | — | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Carabelli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Pellegrino's 20%).
| Opponent | Pellegrino | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | L 67 76 36 | L 16 61 36 67 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 46 64 57 | L 26 62 36 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | L 36 46 | W 36 75 75 |
| Daniel Merida | L 36 75 36 | L 64 63 26 03 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 46 67 36 | L 76 16 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 61 | W 76 76 |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | L | L 36 64 67 |
| Martin Damm | L 06 67 | W 76 63 |
| Timofey Skatov | L | W 67 63 64 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 76 67 63 | W 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Matej Dodig
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Valerio Aboian
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Mika Petkovic
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Zizou Bergs
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Nishesh Basavareddy
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 18
Thiago Monteiro
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Carlo Alberto Caniato
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–55 matches
| Metric | Pellegrino | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 47% |
| Sets won | 53% | 47% |
| Games won | 50% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pellegrino | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pellegrino | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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