Anastasia Potapova vs Aryna SabalenkaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Anastasia Potapova
#26 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 0–6
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Anastasia Potapova and Aryna Sabalenka have met 3 times since 2023; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Potapova has taken 0 sets to Sabalenka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Potapova | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Anastasia Potapova | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 86% | 44/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 6/18 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 19/48 | 23% | 14/62 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 11/29 | 70% | 42/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 12/18 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 7/14 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 94% | 48/51 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 17/23 | 86% | 44/51 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potapova 0, Sabalenka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Potapova
👑 The Complete Package
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 23, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 9, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 22, 2023
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Potapova | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Anastasia Potapova | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 67% | 10/15 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 27% | 4/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–4 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.55 | 1.17 |
| ROI % | +19.6% | -18.6% |
| Units P/L | +1.76u | -2.61u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Potapova's 50%).
| Opponent | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 46 64 62 | L 46 36 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 64 | L 46 75 26 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 67 26 | W 75 62 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 62 75 | W 63 36 63 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L | L 67 64 46 |
| Elina Svitolina | L 16 16 | W 62 63 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 61 | W 63 64 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 26 | L 63 57 06 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 46 64 64 | W 64 64 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | L 26 36 | W 64 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sinja Kraus
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Mirra Andreeva
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Amanda Anisimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Leolia Jeanjean
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Darja Semenistaja
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–62 matches
| Metric | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 82% |
| Sets won | 57% | 79% |
| Games won | 52% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.