Anastasia Potapova vs Aryna SabalenkaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Anastasia Potapova
#25 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 0–6
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Anastasia Potapova and Aryna Sabalenka have met 3 times since 2023; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Potapova has taken 0 sets to Sabalenka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Potapova | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Anastasia Potapova | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 15/26 | 84% | 42/50 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 4/15 | 70% | 7/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 15/41 | 25% | 15/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 9/22 | 69% | 41/59 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 12/19 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 17/19 | 92% | 45/49 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 86% | 42/49 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potapova 0, Sabalenka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Potapova
👑 The Complete Package
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 23, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 9, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 22, 2023
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Potapova | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Anastasia Potapova | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 20% | 3/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.73 | 1.16 |
| ROI % | -47.9% | -23.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.83u | -3.75u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Potapova's 50%).
| Opponent | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Elina Svitolina | L 16 16 | W 62 63 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 61 | W 63 64 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 26 | L 63 57 06 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 46 64 64 | W 64 64 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | L 26 36 | W 64 62 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 67 26 | L 46 76 06 |
| Coco Gauff | W 46 76 64 | W 62 46 63 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 75 46 64 | W 60 75 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 62 | W 63 62 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 57 46 | L 62 36 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Diana Shnaider
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Venus Williams
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Suzan Lamens
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 10
Anna Kalinskaya
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–60 matches
| Metric | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 83% |
| Sets won | 58% | 79% |
| Games won | 53% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Potapova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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