Alex Molcan vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Molcan and Sebastian Baez have met 3 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Ostrava in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 2–1. Baez has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Baez leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Molcan has taken 2 sets to Baez's 5. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Prostejov Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Molcan | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Molcan | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 24/33 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 5/15 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 14/48 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 15/26 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 13/21 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 8/16 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 27/31 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 24/31 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Molcan 0, Baez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Molcan
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🎾 All-Court archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sebastian Baez.
All-Court players often use tactical versatility and net approach ability to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 7, 2026
Prostejov Challenger
C Clay · Final
Aug 3, 2023
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 29, 2021
Ostrava
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Molcan | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Molcan | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–5 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.98 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | +4.2% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.59u | +1.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 3 |
| Events | — | 4 |
| Matches | — | 9 |
| Distance | — | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Molcan's 40%).
| Opponent | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 36 26 | L 16 26 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 67 36 | L 36 16 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | L 57 67 | W 76 26 64 |
| Valentin Royer | W 64 75 | L 26 36 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 36 26 46 | W 64 61 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 62 75 | W 63 76 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 06 63 64 | W 64 62 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 46 | W 75 63 |
| Titouan Droguet | L 36 57 | L 46 46 |
| Emilio Nava | W 61 76 | W 46 75 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Quarterfinals
Jul 23
Daniel Altmaier
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Sebastian Ofner
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 21
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Semifinals
Jul 17
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Valentin Royer
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Francesco Forti
Bundesliga - men
Jul 10
Jiri Lehecka
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–64 matches
| Metric | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 55% |
| Sets won | 63% | 53% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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