Alex Molcan vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Molcan and Sebastian Baez have met 3 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Ostrava in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 2–1. Baez has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Baez leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Molcan has taken 2 sets to Baez's 5. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Prostejov Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Molcan | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Molcan | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 23/35 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 6/19 | 22% | 6/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 18/54 | 23% | 14/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 14/27 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 15/25 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 6/14 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 29/34 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 23/34 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Molcan 0, Baez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Molcan
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 878 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 7, 2026
Prostejov Challenger
C Clay · Final
Aug 3, 2023
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 29, 2021
Ostrava
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Molcan | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Molcan | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 65% | 13/20 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 30% | 6/20 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 15% | 3/20 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.11 | 2.40 |
| ROI % | +7.8% | -11.4% |
| Units P/L | +1.02u | -2.05u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Molcan's 40%).
| Opponent | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Machac | W 63 62 | L 62 46 16 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 62 75 | L 57 57 |
| Chun-Hsin Tseng | L | W 63 62 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 36 26 | L 16 26 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 67 36 | L 36 16 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | L 57 67 | W 76 26 64 |
| Valentin Royer | W 64 75 | L 26 36 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 36 26 46 | W 64 61 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 06 63 64 | W 64 62 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 46 | W 75 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Federico Cina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Karen Khachanov
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Tomas Machac
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Marco Trungelliti
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Vit Kopriva
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, SVK-GRE 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, SVK-GRE 3-2 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
Tulln Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–66 matches
| Metric | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 53% |
| Sets won | 58% | 52% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Molcan | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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