Alex de Minaur vs Taro DanielPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Taro Daniel have met 4 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 4–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Daniel's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Taro Daniel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 71% | 25/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 32% | 18/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 59% | 10/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 88% | 29/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 76% | 25/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Daniel 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Daniel
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 657 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Taro Daniel.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 8, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 26, 2024
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 2, 2023
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 28, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Taro Daniel | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 20/20 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 45% | 9/20 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 25% | 5/20 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 16–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.09 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +63.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +12.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Daniel's 0%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | L 62 67 26 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | L 67 46 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Quebec City Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 22
Jan Choinski
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Duncan Chan
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Botic van de Zandschulp
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Bastad
Jul 13
Federico Coria
Bastad
Jul 12
Valentin Royer
Iasi Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 63% |
| Sets won | 62% | 60% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
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