Alex de Minaur vs Taro DanielPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Taro Daniel have met 4 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 4–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Daniel's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Taro Daniel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 73% | 29/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 31% | 19/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 60% | 15/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 77% | 23/30 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 83% | 35/42 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 69% | 29/42 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Daniel 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Daniel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Alex de Minaur and Taro Daniel are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,190 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 8, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 26, 2024
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 2, 2023
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 28, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Taro Daniel | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.73 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +5.1% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +0.82u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 2,283 mi · 3,674 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Daniel's 0%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | W 76 64 | L 67 26 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | L 67 46 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | L 62 67 26 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Shintaro Mochizuki
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Fabian Marozsan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Dane Sweeny
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Hayato Matsuoka
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Jake Delaney
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Matthew Dellavedova
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 66% |
| Sets won | 63% | 62% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
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