Alex de Minaur vs Milos RaonicPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Milos Raonic have met 3 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Brisbane in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Raonic's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at 's-Hertogenbosch (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Raonic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Milos Raonic | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Raonic 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Raonic
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Milos Raonic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 14, 2024
's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jan 5, 2024
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Jan 3, 2018
Brisbane
H Hard · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | - |
| ROI % | -16.4% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Taylor Fritz
London / Queen's Club · Round of 16
Jun 19
Cameron Norrie
London / Queen's Club · Round of 32
Jun 17
Alex de Minaur
's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 14
Roberto Bautista Agut
's-Hertogenbosch · Round of 16
Jun 13
Jordan Thompson
's-Hertogenbosch · Round of 32
Jun 11
Sumit Nagal
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells · Round of 128
Mar 7
Alexander Bublik
Rotterdam · Round of 16
Feb 14
Jesper de Jong
Rotterdam · Round of 32
Feb 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 74–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | - |
| Sets won | 62% | - |
| Games won | 54% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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