Alex de Minaur vs Milos RaonicPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Milos Raonic have met 3 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Brisbane in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Raonic's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Raonic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Milos Raonic | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Raonic 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Raonic
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Milos Raonic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 14, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jan 5, 2024
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Jan 3, 2018
Brisbane
H Hard · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | - |
| ROI % | +8.6% | - |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | — |
| Route | GBR → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Dominik Koepfer
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Taylor Fritz
cinch Championships - London · 2nd Round
Jun 19
Cameron Norrie
cinch Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 17
Alex de Minaur
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 14
Roberto Bautista Agut
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 2nd Round
Jun 13
Jordan Thompson
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 11
Sumit Nagal
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 1st Round
Mar 7
Alexander Bublik
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam · 2nd Round
Feb 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 69–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | - |
| Sets won | 63% | - |
| Games won | 54% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Raonic |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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