Alex de Minaur vs Maks KasnikowskiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Maks Kasnikowski have met 1 time since 2026; Alex de Minaur leads 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 2 sets to Kasnikowski's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Kasnikowski | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Maks Kasnikowski | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 79% | 42/53 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 60% | 18/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 35% | 29/83 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 62% | 38/61 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 82% | 47/57 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 74% | 42/57 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Kasnikowski 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Kasnikowski
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Maks Kasnikowski.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 19, 2026
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1
H Hard · Rubber 1
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Kasnikowski | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Maks Kasnikowski | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 40% | 6/15 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 8–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.05 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -27.2% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -4.35u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | — |
| Route | GBR → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Kasnikowski's 0%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Andrea Guerrieri | W 62 62 64 | L 63 36 46 |
| Jurij Rodionov | W 64 61 | L 26 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Philip Henning
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Alex de Minaur
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Jay Dylan Hara Friend
Istanbul Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Francesco Maestrelli
Istanbul Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Christian Langmo
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Manacor Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Elmer Moller
Manacor Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 2
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 69–83 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 64% |
| Sets won | 63% | 64% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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