Alex de Minaur vs Hubert HurkaczPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz have met 5 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Atlanta in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 4–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 8 sets to Hurkacz's 5. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at United Cup - Australia (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Hurkacz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Hubert Hurkacz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 44% | 15/34 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 80% | 8/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 52% | 11/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 55% | 12/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Hurkacz 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Hurkacz
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Hubert Hurkacz.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 9, 2026
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 10, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 4, 2024
United Cup
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 6, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 64
Jul 12, 2018
Atlanta
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Hurkacz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Hubert Hurkacz | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 7% | 1/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 11–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.52 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +11.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 9 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA → MEX |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Hurkacz's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | L 46 76 36 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | L 63 67 57 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | W 62 76 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | W 76 64 64 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 76 61 60 | W 46 76 63 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | W 64 62 76 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | L 67 46 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 46 67 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 76 67 46 76 46 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | W 76 57 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Sebastian Baez
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Roman Safiullin
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Henrique Rocha
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Tommy Paul
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Sho Shimabukuro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Alejandro Tabilo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 57% |
| Sets won | 62% | 57% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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