Alex de Minaur vs Hubert HurkaczPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz have met 6 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Atlanta in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 5–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 8 sets to Hurkacz's 5. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at China Open - Beijing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Hurkacz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Hubert Hurkacz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 59% | 17/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 44% | 20/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 38% | 12/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 85% | 11/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 79% | 23/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 59% | 17/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Hurkacz 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Hurkacz
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Hubert Hurkacz.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 5, 2026
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 9, 2026
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 10, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 4, 2024
United Cup
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 6, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 64
Jul 12, 2018
Atlanta
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Hurkacz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Hubert Hurkacz | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 23/23 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 23/23 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 100% | 23/23 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 83% | 19/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 26% | 6/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 18–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +21.1% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +4.85u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 12 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Minaur and Hurkacz posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | L | W 64 63 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | W 63 76 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | W 63 62 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 62 62 | W 76 62 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 46 67 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 67 63 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | W 63 64 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | W 46 63 64 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | L 63 67 57 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | L 46 76 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
James Duckworth
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Karen Khachanov
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Arthur Gea
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Learner Tien
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Matchup videos
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 64% |
| Sets won | 63% | 60% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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