Alex de Minaur vs Benjamin BonziPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

๐ฆ๐บAlex de Minaur
#9 ยท 27 yrs ยท R
5 meetings ยท sets 9โ3

๐ซ๐ทBenjamin Bonzi
#92 ยท 30 yrs ยท R
5Alex de Minaur and Benjamin Bonzi have met 5 times since 2022; Alex de Minaur leads 4โ1. Their first meeting came at Davis Cup, Group C, Hamburg in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3โ1. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Bonzi's 3. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches ยท Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Bonzi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Benjamin Bonzi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 65% | 22/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 37% | 21/57 |
| Covers โ1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 50% | 17/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 60% | 18/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 84% | 26/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 71% | 22/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Bonzi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
๐ช Counterpuncher
Bonzi
๐ฅ Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
๐ช Counterpuncher vs ๐ฅ Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jun 12, 2026
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass ยท Quarterfinals
Feb 24, 2023
Open 13 Provence - Marseille
H Hard ยท Quarterfinals
Jan 21, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard ยท 3rd Round
Oct 18, 2022
Stockholm Open - Stockholm
H Hard ยท 1st Round
Sep 15, 2022
Davis Cup, Group C, Hamburg
H Hard ยท Rubber 2
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets ยท Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Bonzi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Benjamin Bonzi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 60% | 9/15 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 20% | 3/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 7% | 1/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches ยท Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bonzi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14โ5 | 10โ7 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +8.5% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +1.44u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bonzi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi ยท 9,208 km | 0 mi ยท 0 km |
| Route | GBR โ CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced ยท Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Bonzi's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Bonzi |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | W 26 76 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 36 46 26 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 63 63 | W 64 76 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 62 62 | L 36 26 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | W 76 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | L 06 76 64 36 46 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 76 63 | L 61 64 67 36 13 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | W 64 36 63 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | L 46 75 67 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai ยท 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing ยท Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing ยท Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing ยท Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing ยท 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing ยท 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London ยท Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 ยท Rubber 4
Sep 20
August Holmgren
Porto Challenger ยท 1st Round
Sep 28
Karen Khachanov
U.S. Open - New York ยท 3rd Round
Sep 5
Ignacio Buse
U.S. Open - New York ยท 2nd Round
Sep 4
Alex Molcan
U.S. Open - New York ยท 1st Round
Sep 2
Ignacio Buse
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem ยท Semifinals
Aug 28
Botic van de Zandschulp
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem ยท Quarterfinals
Aug 27
Rinky Hijikata
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem ยท 3rd Round
Aug 26
Quentin Halys
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem ยท 2nd Round
Aug 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won ยท Last 12 months ยท 63โ69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Bonzi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 57% |
| Sets won | 63% | 55% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Bonzi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Bonzi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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