Alex de Minaur vs Alex MolcanPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Alex Molcan have met 1 time since 2022; Alex Molcan leads 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 0 sets to Molcan's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alex Molcan won at Open Parc - Lyon (2022).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 2nd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 9 · 3:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.35 or shorter, Alex de Minaur has won 118 of 146 (81%). The price implied 78%, so Alex de Minaur has beaten it by 3 points.
At 3.27 or longer, Alex Molcan has won 10 of 32 (31%). The price implied 23%, so Alex Molcan has beaten it by 8 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Alex de Minaur will meet Alex Molcan in the second round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 9 on hard court. De Minaur, ranked ninth, has won four of his last five matches. Molcan, ranked 84th, claimed victory in his opening match to advance to this stage.
The pair have met once before, with Molcan taking that contest. De Minaur has won 4 of 5 recent matches and 8 of 10 overall; Molcan has won 4 of 5 but only 5 of 10 in a longer sample. Against shared opponents, de Minaur defeated Benjamin Bonzi and Stefanos Tsitsipas, while Molcan lost to both.
Both players operate as counterpunchers, relying on return aggression and defensive mobility. De Minaur holds a 65% hard court record in his recent sample while Molcan sits at 50%. The match will turn on whose defensive instincts prove sharper and who can capitalize when the other player attacks.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Molcan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Alex Molcan | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 24/36 | 66% | 23/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 33% | 18/54 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 46% | 22/48 | 52% | 14/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 60% | 15/25 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 72% | 18/25 | 43% | 6/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 29/33 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 24/33 | 68% | 23/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Molcan 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Molcan
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Alex de Minaur and Alex Molcan are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,300 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
May 20, 2022
Open Parc - Lyon
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Molcan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Alex Molcan | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 81% | 13/16 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 5 or more | 44% | 7/16 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Molcan |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 9–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.59 | 2.07 |
| ROI % | +6.9% | +11.6% |
| Units P/L | +1.25u | +1.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Molcan |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Molcan's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Molcan |
|---|---|---|
| Karen Khachanov | W 62 62 | L 57 36 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | L 63 26 36 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 62 36 46 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | L 46 63 36 26 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 61 61 | L 36 26 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | W 64 64 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 36 61 62 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 64 64 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 76 63 | W 62 62 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | W 63 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Maks Kasnikowski
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Federico Cina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Karen Khachanov
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Tomas Machac
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Marco Trungelliti
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Vit Kopriva
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, SVK-GRE 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, SVK-GRE 3-2 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
Tulln Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Molcan |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 62% |
| Sets won | 62% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Molcan |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Molcan |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |