Alejandro Tabilo vs Juan Pablo VarillasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇱Alejandro Tabilo
#28 · 29 yrs · L
36 meetings · sets 7–7
🇵🇪Juan Pablo Varillas
#232 · 30 yrs · R
4w3Alejandro Tabilo and Juan Pablo Varillas have met 6 times since 2016; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Cali in 2016 on clay. On clay courts Varillas leads 3–2. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 7 sets to Varillas's 7. Their most recent meeting: Alejandro Tabilo won at Davis Cup, World Group, Q, CHI-PER 3-2 (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Pablo Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 26/49 | 72% | 26/36 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 11/27 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 34/76 | 29% | 18/63 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 22/46 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 17/27 | 91% | 10/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 15/32 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 37/45 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 26/45 | 68% | 26/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 2, Pablo Varillas 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
💥 Big Hitter
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Feb 3, 2024
Davis Cup, World Group, Q, CHI-PER 3-2
H Hard · Rubber 1
Sep 18, 2022
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-CHI 2-3
C Clay · Rubber 4
Mar 12, 2022
Santiago Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Aug 4, 2021
Cordenons Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 8, 2019
Tallahassee
C Clay · Round of 64
Jul 5, 2016
Cali
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–9 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -22.2% | +49.5% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +3.47u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | SMR |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tabilo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Varillas's 17%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 63 64 | L 46 26 |
| Lautaro Midon | W 64 67 64 | L 67 46 |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | W 75 64 | W 63 75 |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | W 76 63 | L 36 67 |
| Emilio Nava | W 63 63 | L 36 26 |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L 26 61 16 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Jan-Lennard Struff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Hubert Hurkacz
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 2
Ben Shelton
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Tallon Griekspoor
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Tiago Torres
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Mili Poljicak
San Marino Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Timofey Skatov
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Francesco Maestrelli
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jacopo Vasami
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nicolas Mejia
Bogota Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Bogota Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Luis Carlos Alvarez
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Bruno Fernandez
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–81 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 57% |
| Sets won | 57% | 56% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 3 |
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