Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2022 on grass. On hard courts Mannarino leads 2–1. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 5 sets to Paul's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 10/17 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 15/46 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 7/14 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 14/32 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 12/15 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 10/15 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 1, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
🎯 Baseliner
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,047 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 20, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 28, 2024
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 29, 2022
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -2.3% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.37u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Mannarino's 20%).
| Opponent | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Sonego | L 16 67 | W 63 62 64 |
| Learner Tien | W 75 64 | L 36 26 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 26 26 | W 26 63 63 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 67 67 | L 76 46 36 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 46 36 | W 63 63 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 36 16 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Ignacio Buse | L 46 26 | L 67 64 36 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 36 67 | W 62 36 76 |
| Zizou Bergs | L 46 36 | W 61 62 |
| Adam Walton | W 64 62 | W 76 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lorenzo Sonego
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Denis Shapovalov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jacob Fearnley
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Learner Tien
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexis Galarneau
Newport Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Remy Bertola
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Alex de Minaur
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–51 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 35% | 69% |
| Sets won | 37% | 64% |
| Games won | 47% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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