Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2022 on grass. On hard courts Mannarino leads 2–1. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 5 sets to Paul's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 9/18 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 8/30 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 17/48 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 6/14 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 16/34 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 12/24 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 9/16 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 1, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Adrian Mannarino and Tommy Paul are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 20, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 28, 2024
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 29, 2022
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.71 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | +20.8% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | +3.32u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 4 | 2 |
| Matches | 10 | 2 |
| Distance | 6,939 mi · 11,168 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | FRA → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Mannarino and Paul posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Flavio Cobolli | W 61 46 63 | L 62 36 46 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 64 | L 16 26 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 76 36 76 | L 75 46 46 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 36 16 16 | W 64 36 67 61 63 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 46 36 63 63 63 | L 57 46 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | L 16 67 | W 63 62 64 |
| Learner Tien | W 75 64 | L 36 26 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 26 26 | W 26 63 63 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 46 36 | W 63 63 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 36 16 | W 46 63 75 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karen Khachanov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Flavio Cobolli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Miomir Kecmanovic
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Denis Shapovalov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Alejandro Tabilo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Juncheng Shang
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–58 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 37% | 69% |
| Sets won | 38% | 64% |
| Games won | 46% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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