Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de MinaurPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Alex de Minaur have met 7 times since 2019; Alex de Minaur leads 6–1. Their first meeting came at Zhuhai in 2019 on hard. On grass courts Minaur leads 3–1. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. Minaur has won the last 5 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 5 sets to Minaur's 14. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | de Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Alex de Minaur | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 10/17 | 74% | 28/38 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 15/46 | 33% | 20/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 7/14 | 47% | 24/51 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 14/32 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 12/15 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 10/15 | 74% | 28/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 1, de Minaur 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
🎯 Baseliner
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Adrian Mannarino.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jul 2, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jun 13, 2026
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Semifinals
Jun 23, 2023
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jan 19, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 29, 2022
Truist Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 9, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 2nd Round
Sep 29, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Alex de Minaur | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 78% | 14/18 |
| 5 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 50% | 9/18 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 1.33 |
| ROI % | -2.3% | -16.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.37u | -3.11u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Mannarino's 40%).
| Opponent | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fery | L 67 46 | W 75 76 |
| Denis Shapovalov | L 16 46 | W 64 61 |
| Nuno Borges | L 26 26 | W 75 62 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 57 76 76 | L 60 26 26 36 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 64 36 75 | W 76 63 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 76 36 63 | W 63 36 76 |
| Martin Damm | W 16 63 64 | W 76 75 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 46 36 | W 64 63 |
| Tommy Paul | L 26 62 46 | L 62 36 36 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 36 67 | L 57 63 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lorenzo Sonego
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Denis Shapovalov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jacob Fearnley
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Learner Tien
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexis Galarneau
Newport Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Remy Bertola
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Alex de Minaur
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–74 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 35% | 64% |
| Sets won | 37% | 62% |
| Games won | 47% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 3 |
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