Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de MinaurPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Alex de Minaur have met 7 times since 2019; Alex de Minaur leads 6–1. Their first meeting came at Zhuhai in 2019 on hard. On grass courts Minaur leads 3–1. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. Minaur has won the last 5 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 5 sets to Minaur's 14. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | de Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Alex de Minaur | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 9/18 | 68% | 25/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 8/30 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 17/48 | 36% | 20/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 6/14 | 48% | 23/48 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 16/34 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 12/24 | 73% | 19/26 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 9/16 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 1, de Minaur 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
💥 Big Hitter
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jul 2, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jun 13, 2026
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Semifinals
Jun 23, 2023
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jan 19, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 29, 2022
Truist Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 9, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 2nd Round
Sep 29, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Alex de Minaur | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 82% | 14/17 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 47% | 8/17 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 12% | 2/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | 14–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.71 | 1.58 |
| ROI % | +20.8% | +8.6% |
| Units P/L | +3.32u | +1.64u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 4 | 3 |
| Matches | 10 | 7 |
| Distance | 6,939 mi · 11,168 km | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km |
| Route | FRA → CHN | GBR → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Mannarino's 40%).
| Opponent | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Karen Khachanov | L 26 46 | W 62 62 |
| Flavio Cobolli | W 61 46 63 | L 57 67 36 |
| Denis Shapovalov | L 76 36 26 | W 64 61 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 36 16 16 | W 64 61 61 |
| Arthur Fery | L 67 46 | W 75 76 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 57 76 76 | L 60 26 26 36 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 64 36 75 | W 76 63 |
| Martin Damm | W 16 63 64 | W 76 75 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 46 36 | W 64 63 |
| Tommy Paul | L 26 62 46 | L 62 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karen Khachanov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Flavio Cobolli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Miomir Kecmanovic
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Denis Shapovalov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Alejandro Tabilo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Juncheng Shang
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–69 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 37% | 67% |
| Sets won | 38% | 63% |
| Games won | 46% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 3 |
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