ATP 500 · Semifinals · Rio de Janeiro
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Baez
⚔️ The Gladiator
Carabelli
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 3,101 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Camilo Ugo Carabelli here.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Baez | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–9 | 11–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.71 | 2.87 |
| ROI % | -37.5% | +4.0% |
| Units P/L | -5.62u | +0.81u |
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
5
Baez
1
Carabelli
Feb 13, 2026
IEB+ Argentina Open
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 20, 2025
Hamburg
C Clay · Round of 32
Mar 1, 2025
Santiago
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 22, 2025
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 11, 2025
Buenos Aires
C Clay · Round of 32
Mar 15, 2021
Santiago
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Carabelli's 50%).
| Opponent | Baez | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Emilio Nava | W 46 75 63 | W 76 63 63 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 64 63 | W 63 36 75 |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | W 64 64 36 57 63 | W 26 63 76 |
| Luciano Darderi | L 46 36 | L 67 36 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 76 61 | L 46 26 |
| Cristian Garin | W 76 16 75 | W 64 64 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 75 36 57 | L 46 36 |
| Marcos Giron | W 61 64 | L 67 67 36 |
| Reilly Opelka | L 36 46 | L 67 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 60 16 46 | W 76 57 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Baez | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 68.9% | 61.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 61.4% | 73.8% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 48.6% | 50.9% |
| Aces / Match | 2 | 5.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 61.3% | 62.1% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 33.2% | 31.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 55.2% | 51.3% |
| BP Converted % | 50.3% | 35.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 13.9 | 23.1 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.7 | 26.7 |
| Net Pts Won % | 57.3% | 70% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.1% | 51.5% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 36% | 56% |
Last five matches per player
Pablo Carreno Busta
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 16
May 9
Alex Michelsen
Gonet Geneva Open · Round of 32
May 9
Alexander Bublik
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 8
Jenson Brooksby
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 7
Roberto Carballes Baena
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 32
May 7
Andrey Rublev
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Emilio Nava
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 25
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Frances Tiafoe
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 16
May 13
Miomir Kecmanovic
Copa Faulconbridge · Quarterfinals
May 12
Matchup overview
Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli face off in the Semifinals at Rio de Janeiro on Clay.
Sebastian Baez leads 5-1 over 6 previous meetings.
Sebastian Baez is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Pablo Carreno Busta (May 9).
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Andrey Rublev (May 27).
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