ATP 500 · Round of 16 · Bitpanda Hamburg Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
🪃 Counterpuncher
Tiafoe
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,039 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Frances Tiafoe here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–9 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.88 | 2.38 |
| ROI % | +3.9% | +12.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.74u | +2.30u |
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Carabelli
0
Tiafoe
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Carabelli's 20%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 46 76 26 | W 64 36 76 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 63 36 75 | W 67 63 62 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 76 16 46 | W 61 62 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 67 46 | W 64 36 62 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 06 36 | L 57 16 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 76 16 57 | L 36 46 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 36 46 | W 36 76 64 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 63 | W 64 75 67 75 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 46 36 | L 76 26 16 |
| Learner Tien | L 67 36 | L 67 63 57 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Carabelli | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.2% | 61.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.6% | 70.9% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.3% | 53.5% |
| Aces / Match | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 58.9% | 61.4% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 31.3% | 28% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 51.8% | 50.8% |
| BP Converted % | 36.2% | 38.4% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 23.4 | 22.1 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 26.9 | 25.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 70.4% | 76% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.7% | 50.4% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 53% | 57% |
Last five matches per player
Kamil Majchrzak
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 32
May 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Matteo Berrettini
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 16
May 14
Frances Tiafoe
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 16
May 13
Miomir Kecmanovic
Copa Faulconbridge · Quarterfinals
May 12
Diego Dedura
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 32
May 17
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 16
May 13
Andrea Pellegrino
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 32
May 10
Ignacio Buse
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 9
Tommy Paul
Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship · Semifinals
Apr 4
Match summary
Camilo Ugo Carabelli meets Frances Tiafoe in the Round of 16 at the Bitpanda Hamburg Open on May 19 on outdoor clay. Tiafoe ranks 21st while Carabelli sits at 68th. The two have never faced each other.
Tiafoe has won 6 of his last 10 matches and arrives on a single-match winning streak after three outings in 14 days. Carabelli has won 5 of his last 10 but dropped his most recent match, with only two appearances in the same span. On clay, Tiafoe holds a 55% record while Carabelli has won 60% of his matches on the surface. Against common opponents, Tiafoe defeated Cobolli, Hijikata, and Bu; Carabelli lost to all three.
Tiafoe relies on a powerful serve to dictate play; Carabelli operates as a counterpuncher who constructs points from neutral positions. On clay, Carabelli's recovery and court positioning gain importance, while Tiafoe's service consistency becomes more critical without the pace the surface typically offers. Tiafoe must maintain precision with his first serve; Carabelli needs to stay composed in rallies and convert second-serve opportunities.
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