Matteo Berrettini vs Taro DanielPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matteo Berrettini and Taro Daniel have met 6 times since 2018; Matteo Berrettini leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Istanbul in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Berrettini leads 3–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Berrettini has taken 10 sets to Daniel's 6. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Valencia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Berrettini | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Berrettini | Taro Daniel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 14/21 | 73% | 29/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 6/19 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 13/40 | 31% | 19/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 11/29 | 60% | 15/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 6/10 | 77% | 23/30 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 16/18 | 83% | 35/42 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | 69% | 29/42 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Berrettini 2, Daniel 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Daniel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Berrettini.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
May 13, 2026
Valencia Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 10, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 21, 2022
Tennis Napoli Open - Naples
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 1, 2021
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 24, 2021
Serbia Open - Belgrade
C Clay · Semifinals
May 2, 2018
Istanbul
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Berrettini | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Berrettini | Taro Daniel | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 5 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 10 or more | 56% | 5/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 11% | 1/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.82 | 1.73 |
| ROI % | -25.1% | +5.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.26u | +0.82u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 2,283 mi · 3,674 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Daniel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Berrettini's 50%).
| Opponent | Berrettini | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L 67 16 | L 36 26 |
| Dusan Lajovic | W 36 64 62 | W 76 26 61 |
| Federico Coria | W 75 75 | W 60 62 |
| Emilio Nava | L 36 46 | W 61 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Shintaro Mochizuki
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Fabian Marozsan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Dane Sweeny
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Hayato Matsuoka
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Jake Delaney
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Matthew Dellavedova
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–61 matches
| Metric | Berrettini | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 66% |
| Sets won | 57% | 62% |
| Games won | 52% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Berrettini | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Berrettini | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 3 | 1 |
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