Madison Keys vs Sorana CirsteaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5w2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇷🇴Sorana Cirstea
#16 · 36 yrs · Right-Handed
5wMadison Keys and Sorana Cirstea have met 2 times since 2019; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Madrid in 2019 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Keys has taken 3 sets to Cirstea's 2. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Cirstea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Sorana Cirstea | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 78% | 32/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 18/50 | 30% | 17/57 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 75% | 30/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 80% | 12/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 93% | 37/40 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 80% | 32/40 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 1, Cirstea 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Cirstea
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 13, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
May 8, 2019
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Cirstea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Sorana Cirstea | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 4–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.40 | 1.98 |
| ROI % | -24.8% | -20.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -1.40u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cirstea has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Keys's 40%).
| Opponent | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula | L 67 67 | L 36 46 |
| Anna Bondar | W 57 64 76 | W 76 62 |
| Diane Parry | L | W 62 75 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 63 46 67 | W 61 76 |
| Xiyu Wang | W 76 64 | W 63 76 |
| Daria Snigur | W 46 63 63 | W 60 63 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 36 61 46 | W 76 63 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 67 | L 62 36 67 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 64 | W 62 60 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 63 06 | W 62 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Jasmine Paolini
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Diane Parry
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Julia Grabher
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Anna Kalinskaya
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Nikola Bartunkova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Maya Joint
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–57 matches
| Metric | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 72% |
| Sets won | 65% | 69% |
| Games won | 56% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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