Madison Keys vs Sorana CirsteaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇷🇴Sorana Cirstea
#17 · 36 yrs · Right-Handed
Madison Keys and Sorana Cirstea have met 2 times since 2019; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Madrid in 2019 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Keys has taken 3 sets to Cirstea's 2. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Cirstea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Sorana Cirstea | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 76% | 29/38 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 8/15 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 16/47 | 32% | 18/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 22/37 | 71% | 27/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 79% | 11/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 92% | 34/37 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 24/30 | 78% | 29/37 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 1, Cirstea 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Cirstea
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Madison Keys and Sorana Cirstea are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 13, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
May 8, 2019
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Cirstea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Sorana Cirstea | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 89% | 8/9 |
| 3 or more | 68% | 13/19 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 44% | 4/9 |
| 10 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 11% | 1/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | -10.3% | -38.7% |
| Units P/L | -1.95u | -3.48u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cirstea has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Keys's 50%).
| Opponent | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 63 46 67 | W 61 76 |
| Xiyu Wang | W 76 64 | W 63 76 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 67 67 | L 26 64 57 |
| Daria Snigur | W 46 63 63 | W 60 63 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 36 61 46 | W 76 63 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 67 | L 62 36 67 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 64 | W 62 60 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 64 75 | L 26 36 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 63 06 | W 62 76 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 63 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Nikola Bartunkova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Maya Joint
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Kimberly Birrell
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Sara Bejlek
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Emma Raducanu
The HSBC Championships - London · 2nd Round
Jun 12
Maddison Inglis
The HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–56 matches
| Metric | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 68% |
| Sets won | 65% | 65% |
| Games won | 56% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.