Madison Keys vs Qinwen ZhengPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#21 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
8w3 meetings · sets 4–4
🇨🇳Qinwen Zheng
#22 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
7Title4Madison Keys and Qinwen Zheng have met 3 times since 2023; Qinwen Zheng leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Zheng leads 2–1. Zheng has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Keys has taken 4 sets to Zheng's 4. Their most recent meeting: Qinwen Zheng won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Zheng | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Qinwen Zheng | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 42% | 10/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 43% | 6/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 18/50 | 53% | 20/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 26% | 7/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 73% | 8/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 78% | 7/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 74% | 17/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 43% | 10/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 1, Zheng 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Zheng
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,835 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 5, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 22, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 2, 2023
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Zheng | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Qinwen Zheng | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 44% | 4/9 | 67% | 10/15 |
| 10 or more | 11% | 1/9 | 20% | 3/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–3 | 14–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.41 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +56.7% |
| Units P/L | -1.48u | +9.08u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 7 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Zheng's 43%).
| Opponent | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | L 16 26 | W 75 63 |
| Anna Bondar | W 57 64 76 | W 36 63 64 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 61 63 | L 46 46 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 61 62 | L 46 57 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 60 61 | W 75 61 |
| Talia Gibson | W 64 64 | L 36 67 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 36 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Mirra Andreeva
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 11
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Elina Svitolina
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Marie Bouzkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Anna Kalinskaya
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Han Shi
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 38–50 matches
| Metric | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 63% |
| Sets won | 65% | 56% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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