Madison Keys vs Qinwen ZhengPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–4
🇨🇳Qinwen Zheng
#52 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
Madison Keys and Qinwen Zheng have met 3 times since 2023; Qinwen Zheng leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Zheng leads 2–1. Zheng has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Keys has taken 4 sets to Zheng's 4. Their most recent meeting: Qinwen Zheng won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Zheng | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Qinwen Zheng | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 78% | 25/32 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 43% | 6/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 23/38 | 29% | 7/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 6/12 | 67% | 4/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 44% | 8/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 1, Zheng 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Zheng
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,974 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 5, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 22, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 2, 2023
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Zheng | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Qinwen Zheng | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 94% | 15/16 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 8/21 | 75% | 12/16 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 3/21 | 38% | 6/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 10–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.43 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | -11.2% | +2.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.13u | +0.34u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 8 |
| Distance | 567 mi · 913 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | POL → NED | NED |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Zheng's 43%).
| Opponent | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | L 16 26 | W 75 63 |
| Anna Bondar | W 57 64 76 | W 36 63 64 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 61 63 | L 46 46 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 61 62 | L 46 57 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 60 61 | W 75 61 |
| Talia Gibson | W 64 64 | L 36 67 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 36 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Iga Swiatek
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Madison Keys
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Yulia Putintseva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Kristina Liutova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Elena Pridankina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Clara Burel
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Xiaodi You
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–48 matches
| Metric | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 58% |
| Sets won | 65% | 53% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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