Mackenzie McDonald vs Reilly OpelkaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mackenzie McDonald and Reilly Opelka have met 4 times since 2016; Reilly Opelka leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Charlottesville in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Opelka leads 2–1. Opelka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 3 sets to Opelka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Reilly Opelka won at Infosys Hall of Fame Open - Newport (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Opelka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Reilly Opelka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 75% | 9/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 27% | 6/22 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 77% | 10/13 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 69% | 9/13 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 1, Opelka 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Opelka
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 720 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Reilly Opelka.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 18, 2024
Infosys Hall of Fame Open - Newport
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Feb 19, 2020
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 9, 2019
Dallas
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 5, 2016
Charlottesville
H Hard · Semifinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | - |
| ROI % | -56.3% | - |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | POR | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Opelka's 0%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W 36 63 62 | L |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Federico Cina
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 24
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 1st Round
Apr 23
Ethan Quinn
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 13
Taylor Fritz
Barcelona · Round of 64
Mar 22
Taylor Fritz
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Taylor Fritz
Tokyo · Round of 32
Mar 22
Jack Draper
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Nuno Borges
Miami Open - Miami · 1st Round
Mar 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–51 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 52% |
| Sets won | 43% | 54% |
| Games won | 49% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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