Kei Nishikori vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Kei Nishikori and Rafael Nadal have met 7 times since 2015; Rafael Nadal leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2015 on hard. On clay courts Nadal leads 4–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Nadal has won the last 3 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Nadal leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Nishikori has taken 5 sets to Nadal's 12. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Barcelona (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nishikori | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kei Nishikori | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 4/8 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 3/6 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 50% | 7/14 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 4/9 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 80% | 4/5 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 2/4 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 6/7 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 4/7 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nishikori 1, Nadal 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nishikori
🎯 Baseliner
Nadal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,047 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Apr 19, 2021
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 16
Jun 4, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 22, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Final
Aug 13, 2016
Rio Olympics
C Clay · Olympic Bronze
Apr 24, 2016
Barcelona
C Clay · Final
Mar 14, 2016
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 11, 2015
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–1 | - |
| Avg odds | 3.62 | - |
| ROI % | +10.5% | - |
| Units P/L | +0.21u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Juncheng Shang
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Jack Kennedy
Savannah Challenger · 2nd Round
Apr 22
Colton Smith
Savannah Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 20
Yibing Wu
Sarasota Challenger · 2nd Round
Apr 9
Nicolas Kicker
Sarasota Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 7
Clement Tabur
Cherbourg Challenger · 1st Round
Mar 9
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Thionville Challenger · 2nd Round
Mar 4
Nuno Borges
Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Bastad · Round of 16
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Bastad · Round of 32
Jul 16
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 28
Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 64
May 11
Zizou Bergs
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 128
May 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 14–14 matches
| Metric | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | - |
| Sets won | 54% | - |
| Games won | 52% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 2 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 4 |
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