Kei Nishikori vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Kei Nishikori and Rafael Nadal have met 8 times since 2015; Rafael Nadal leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2015 on hard. On clay courts Nadal leads 5–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Nadal has won the last 4 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Nadal leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Nishikori has taken 6 sets to Nadal's 14. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nishikori | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kei Nishikori | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 5/11 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 4/10 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 10/21 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 5/12 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 2/5 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 9/11 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 5/11 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nishikori 1, Nadal 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nishikori
🏹 Frontrunner
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 411 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Apr 22, 2021
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 3rd Round
Apr 19, 2021
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 16
Jun 4, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 22, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Final
Aug 13, 2016
Rio Olympics
C Clay · Olympic Bronze
Apr 24, 2016
Barcelona
C Clay · Final
Mar 14, 2016
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 11, 2015
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.70 | - |
| ROI % | -15.7% | - |
| Units P/L | -1.41u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | JPN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rei Sakamoto
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Michael Antonius
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Sebastian Ofner
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 12
Francisco Comesana
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Michael Zheng
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–21 matches
| Metric | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | - |
| Sets won | 50% | - |
| Games won | 50% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 2 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 3 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nishikori | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 5 |
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