Karolina Pliskova vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇿Karolina Pliskova
#49 · 34 yrs · Right-Handed
6w2 meetings · sets 2–3
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wKarolina Pliskova and Madison Keys have met 2 times since 2020; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Brisbane International - Brisbane in 2020 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Pliskova leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Pliskova has taken 2 sets to Keys's 3. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pliskova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karolina Pliskova | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 12/20 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 3/12 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 11/32 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 6/16 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 9/16 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 7/10 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 93% | 13/14 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 12/14 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pliskova 0, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pliskova
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 24, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 12, 2020
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pliskova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karolina Pliskova | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 5/5 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 60% | 3/5 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 40% | 2/5 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–3 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.73 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -35.6% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.78u | -2.48u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Pliskova and Keys posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 67 | L 36 63 06 |
| Hanne Vandewinkel | W 26 75 63 | W 63 60 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 06 26 | L 63 46 67 |
| Oleksandra Oliynykova | W 64 64 | W 76 61 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W | W 36 62 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 16 36 | L 16 26 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 63 64 | W 64 61 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 67 63 64 | W 63 61 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 46 63 75 | W 60 61 |
| Talia Gibson | W 75 64 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diana Shnaider
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Hanne Vandewinkel
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mirra Andreeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Oleksandra Oliynykova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Iga Swiatek
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Tereza Valentova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Marie Bouzkova
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · Semifinals
Jun 20
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 32–50 matches
| Metric | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 68% |
| Sets won | 57% | 65% |
| Games won | 49% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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