Karolina Pliskova vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇿Karolina Pliskova
#56 · 34 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 2–3
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Karolina Pliskova and Madison Keys have met 2 times since 2020; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Brisbane International - Brisbane in 2020 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Pliskova leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Pliskova has taken 2 sets to Keys's 3. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pliskova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karolina Pliskova | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 12/19 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 4/12 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 11/31 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 6/17 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 8/14 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 78% | 7/9 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 14/16 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 12/16 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pliskova 0, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pliskova
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 24, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 12, 2020
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pliskova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karolina Pliskova | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 64% | 7/11 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.13 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -13.6% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.50u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs Pliskova's 56%).
| Opponent | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 06 26 | L 63 46 67 |
| Oleksandra Oliynykova | W 64 64 | W 76 61 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 16 36 | L 16 26 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 63 64 | W 64 61 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 67 63 64 | W 63 61 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 46 63 75 | W 60 61 |
| Talia Gibson | W 75 64 | W 64 64 |
| Donna Vekic | L 46 64 36 | W 62 63 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | L 64 26 26 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mirra Andreeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Oleksandra Oliynykova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Iga Swiatek
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Tereza Valentova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Marie Bouzkova
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · Semifinals
Jun 20
Talia Gibson
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Caty Mcnally
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · 2nd Round
Jun 18
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 31–47 matches
| Metric | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 68% |
| Sets won | 58% | 65% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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