Jessica Pegula vs Peyton StearnsPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 4–0
🇺🇸Peyton Stearns
#54 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Peyton Stearns have met 2 times since 2023; Jessica Pegula leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 2–0. Pegula has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 4 sets to Stearns's 0. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Stearns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Peyton Stearns | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 31/57 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 35/76 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 30/60 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 42/48 | 90% | 18/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 31/48 | 75% | 15/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 2, Stearns 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Stearns
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 10, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 3, 2023
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Stearns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Peyton Stearns | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 7/21 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 17–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.75 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | -35.8% |
| Units P/L | +2.29u | -3.22u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 12 | 4 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 1,228 mi · 1,977 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | ECU → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Stearns's 20%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Amanda Anisimova | W 64 26 76 | L 16 46 |
| Clara Tauson | W 63 26 64 | L 67 61 57 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 36 63 62 | W 64 62 |
| Kimberly Birrell | L 61 36 36 | L 57 06 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 64 67 60 | L 57 36 |
| Madison Keys | W 76 76 | L 64 46 26 |
| Belinda Bencic | W 63 76 | L 36 36 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 60 62 | L 06 63 46 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 64 61 | L 46 57 |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva | W 63 62 | W 61 57 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Clara Tauson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Harriet Dart
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Elvina Kalieva
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Tatiana Prozorova
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mary Stoiana
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 29
Nikola Bartunkova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Kimberly Birrell
Eastbourne
Jun 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–76 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 51% |
| Sets won | 66% | 53% |
| Games won | 56% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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