Jelena Ostapenko vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 4–8
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wJelena Ostapenko and Madison Keys have met 5 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Birmingham in 2016 on grass. On hard courts Keys leads 2–1. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 4 sets to Keys's 8. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Adelaide International - Adelaide (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 17/42 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 13/23 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 11/17 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 69% | 18/26 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 1, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Jelena Ostapenko and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 8, 2025
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 14, 2023
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 17, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 4, 2019
Charleston
C Clay · Round of 16
Jun 17, 2016
Birmingham
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -34.0% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.04u | -2.48u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 592 mi · 952 km | — |
| Route | POR → ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Ostapenko's 40%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 64 61 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 46 64 64 | L 61 67 57 |
| Tatjana Maria | L 64 16 26 | W 75 64 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 46 36 | L 63 46 67 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 62 60 | W 61 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 46 | L 36 36 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 64 36 26 | L 67 67 |
| Xi Yao Wang | L 64 46 46 | W 76 61 |
| Victoria Mboko | L 36 26 | W 63 57 75 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 26 62 63 | W 60 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–50 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 68% |
| Sets won | 57% | 65% |
| Games won | 53% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 3 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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