Jelena Ostapenko vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#31 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 4–8
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Jelena Ostapenko and Madison Keys have met 5 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Birmingham in 2016 on grass. On hard courts Keys leads 2–1. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 4 sets to Keys's 8. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Adelaide International - Adelaide (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 15/22 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 16/39 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 12/22 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 9/15 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 70% | 16/23 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 15/23 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 1, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 8, 2025
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 14, 2023
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 17, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 4, 2019
Charleston
C Clay · Round of 16
Jun 17, 2016
Birmingham
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.74 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -7.7% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.54u | -1.95u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Ostapenko's 44%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 46 36 | L 63 46 67 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 62 60 | W 61 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 46 | L 36 36 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 64 36 26 | L 67 67 |
| Xi Yao Wang | L 64 46 46 | W 76 61 |
| Victoria Mboko | L 36 26 | W 63 57 75 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 67 63 64 | W 64 61 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 46 64 64 | L 64 26 46 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 26 62 63 | W 60 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Antonia Ruzic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Harriet Dart
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Zeynep Sonmez
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Panna Udvardy
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magda Linette
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–47 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 68% |
| Sets won | 56% | 65% |
| Games won | 52% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 3 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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