Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 4–4
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleJasmine Paolini and Tatjana Maria have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Paolini leads 2–1. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 4 sets to Maria's 4. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 10/20 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 15/39 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 10/30 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 14% | 1/7 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 10/18 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 2, Maria 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,247 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jun 23, 2026
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne
G Grass · 1st Round
Mar 8, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 18, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -36.5% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | -1.46u | -0.87u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Paolini and Maria posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Townsend | W 63 16 62 | L 76 36 26 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 36 | L 26 06 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | L 75 26 57 | W 46 61 62 |
| Lucrezia Stefanini | W 64 61 | W 61 60 |
| Veronika Erjavec | W 63 36 64 | L 46 76 26 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 75 63 | W 61 62 |
| Talia Gibson | L 57 62 16 | W 60 63 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 26 | L 36 06 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 61 62 | W 63 63 |
| Iva Jovic | L 26 67 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–60 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 53% |
| Sets won | 48% | 55% |
| Games won | 50% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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