Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8w4 meetings · sets 4–4
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Jasmine Paolini and Tatjana Maria have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Paolini leads 2–1. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 4 sets to Maria's 4. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 14/26 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 17/45 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 12/33 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 6/12 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 3/8 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 14/21 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 2, Maria 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jun 23, 2026
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne
G Grass · 1st Round
Mar 8, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 18, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Paolini | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jasmine Paolini | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–2 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.18 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | +35.3% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | +2.12u | +2.03u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paolini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Maria's 40%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Dayana Yastremska | W 75 63 | W 61 62 |
| Talia Gibson | L 57 62 16 | W 60 63 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 26 | L 36 06 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 61 62 | W 63 63 |
| Viktorija Golubic | W 76 64 | L 36 36 |
| Iva Jovic | L 26 67 | L 16 26 |
| Marie Bouzkova | W 62 75 | L 57 06 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 26 | L 76 57 06 |
| Elise Mertens | L 64 67 36 | L 57 06 |
| Leolia Jeanjean | W 67 62 64 | W 76 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–60 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 50% |
| Sets won | 53% | 52% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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