Jan-Lennard Struff vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jan-Lennard Struff and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2022; Jan-Lennard Struff leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Bergamo Challenger in 2022 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Struff has taken 5 sets to Arnaldi's 3. Their most recent meeting: Jan-Lennard Struff won at Boss Open - Stuttgart (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Struff | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jan-Lennard Struff | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 14/23 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 12/25 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 44% | 21/48 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 32% | 8/25 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 11/21 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 11/22 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 77% | 17/22 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 64% | 14/22 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Struff 1, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Struff
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 9, 2025
Boss Open - Stuttgart
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 7, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 4, 2022
Bergamo Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Struff | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jan-Lennard Struff | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 46% | 5/11 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 27% | 3/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.86 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | -16.9% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.86u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Struff has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Arnaldi's 38%).
| Opponent | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Landaluce | W 64 64 | L 46 64 46 |
| James Duckworth | L 76 46 46 | L 75 36 26 67 |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | W 36 76 64 | L 67 76 26 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 36 67 76 75 42 | W 64 64 |
| Nuno Borges | L 46 57 | W 63 67 76 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 76 60 | L 16 76 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 64 26 62 36 16 | W 26 63 62 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 26 63 64 | L 06 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniil Medvedev
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Martin Landaluce
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Thiago Agustin Tirante
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Francisco Cerundolo
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Alejandro Tabilo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–58 matches
| Metric | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 52% |
| Sets won | 51% | 50% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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