Jan-Lennard Struff vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jan-Lennard Struff and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2022; Jan-Lennard Struff leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Bergamo Challenger in 2022 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Struff has taken 5 sets to Arnaldi's 3. Their most recent meeting: Jan-Lennard Struff won at Boss Open - Stuttgart (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Struff | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jan-Lennard Struff | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 12/22 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 12/25 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 47% | 22/47 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 26% | 7/27 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 9/18 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 11/24 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 76% | 16/21 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 12/21 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Struff 1, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Struff
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jan-Lennard Struff.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 9, 2025
Boss Open - Stuttgart
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 7, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 4, 2022
Bergamo Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Struff | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jan-Lennard Struff | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 69% | 9/13 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 39% | 5/13 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–6 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 3.27 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | +31.9% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | +4.14u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Struff has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Arnaldi's 43%).
| Opponent | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Landaluce | W 63 16 75 | L 46 64 46 |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | W 36 76 64 | L 67 76 26 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 36 67 76 75 42 | W 64 64 |
| Nuno Borges | L 46 57 | W 63 67 76 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 76 60 | L 16 76 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 64 26 62 36 16 | W 26 63 62 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 26 63 64 | L 06 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Tabilo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Alex Michelsen
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Mariano Navone
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 21
Jannik Sinner
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon · Round of 16
Jul 6
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–56 matches
| Metric | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 50% |
| Sets won | 48% | 49% |
| Games won | 49% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Struff | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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