Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hubert Hurkacz and Sebastian Baez have met 2 times since 2024; Hubert Hurkacz leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2024 on clay. Hurkacz has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Hurkacz leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Hurkacz has taken 4 sets to Baez's 2. Their most recent meeting: Hubert Hurkacz won at Cancun Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Hurkacz | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hubert Hurkacz | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 17/29 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 8/16 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 44% | 20/45 | 23% | 14/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 12/32 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 85% | 11/13 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 16/29 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 23/29 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 59% | 17/29 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Hurkacz 0, Baez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Hurkacz
🤖 Servebot
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🎾 All-Court across 703 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Hubert Hurkacz.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 24, 2026
Cancun Challenger
H Hard · Final
May 14, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Hurkacz | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hubert Hurkacz | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 23/23 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 23/23 | 32% | 6/19 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 23/23 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 10 or more | 83% | 19/23 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 26% | 6/23 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Hurkacz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 18–5 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | +21.1% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | +4.85u | -2.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Hurkacz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 12 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Hurkacz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Baez's 50%).
| Opponent | Hurkacz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Valentin Vacherot | L 76 36 46 | L 46 67 |
| Marcos Giron | W 75 46 62 | W 16 63 64 |
| Learner Tien | W 57 63 64 | L 36 67 |
| Lloyd Harris | W 76 64 | W 64 64 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 75 67 57 | W 75 63 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 76 | W 76 61 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 67 76 63 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Mattia Bellucci | L 26 46 | W 75 63 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 76 67 26 | L 36 16 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 63 62 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
James Duckworth
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Karen Khachanov
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Arthur Gea
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Learner Tien
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–65 matches
| Metric | Hurkacz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 54% |
| Sets won | 60% | 52% |
| Games won | 53% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Hurkacz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Hurkacz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.