Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

π¨π¦Felix Auger-Aliassime
#5 Β· 26 yrs Β· R
3 meetings Β· sets 4β5

πΊπΈMackenzie McDonald
#169 Β· 31 yrs Β· R
3Felix Auger-Aliassime and Mackenzie McDonald have met 3 times since 2018; Mackenzie McDonald leads 2β1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Miami in 2018 on hard. On hard courts McDonald leads 2β0. Across all meetings Auger-Aliassime has taken 4 sets to McDonald's 5. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at U.S. Open - New York (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches Β· Last 12 months
| Indicator | Auger-Aliassime | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Felix Auger-Aliassime | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 25/40 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 19% | 3/16 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 18/56 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers β1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 66% | 23/35 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 31/33 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 25/33 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Auger-Aliassime 1, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Auger-Aliassime
π€ Servebot
McDonald
βοΈ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The π€ Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs βοΈ Grinder across 720 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 28, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard Β· 1st Round
Jun 15, 2022
Noventi Open - Halle
G Grass Β· 2nd Round
Mar 21, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard Β· 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets Β· Last 90 days
| Outcome | Auger-Aliassime | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Felix Auger-Aliassime | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches Β· Last 90 days
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7β3 | 3β7 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -11.2% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.12u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 3 | 1 |
| Distance | 663 mi Β· 1,067 km | 0 mi Β· 0 km |
| Route | CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced Β· Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (25% vs Auger-Aliassime's 0%).
| Opponent | Auger-Aliassime | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Rinky Hijikata | L 75 46 63 75 | L 36 67 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 64 57 46 | L 62 16 26 |
| Terence Atmane | L 36 61 36 | W 63 61 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 26 | L 26 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pablo Carreno Busta
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai Β· 3rd Round
Oct 12
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai Β· 2nd Round
Oct 10
Karen Khachanov
China Open - Beijing Β· 1st Round
Sep 30
Arthur Rinderknech
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CAN-FRA Β· Rubber 4
Sep 19
Quentin Halys
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CAN-FRA Β· Rubber 2
Sep 18
Karen Khachanov
U.S. Open - New York Β· 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rinky Hijikata
U.S. Open - New York Β· 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· 4th Round
Aug 20
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger Β· 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger Β· 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York Β· 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York Β· 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York Β· 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger Β· 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington Β· 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won Β· Last 12 months Β· 51β68 matches
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 41% |
| Sets won | 64% | 43% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Auger-Aliassime | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Auger-Aliassime | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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