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Head-to-Head

Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Elena Rybakina

🇰🇿Elena Rybakina

#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed

2–1

3 meetings · sets 4–3

Tatjana Maria

🇩🇪Tatjana Maria

#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed

4Title

Elena Rybakina and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2023; Elena Rybakina leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at China Open - Beijing in 2023 on hard. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 4 sets to Maria's 3. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at The HSBC Championships - London (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorRybakinaMaria
Wins in straight sets67%94%
Wins a set when losing58%29%
Goes to a deciding set38%17%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite61%82%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog75%45%
Tiebreak sets won56%58%
Wins after taking set 192%86%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 178%83%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 1, Maria 1).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Rybakina

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve
vs

Maria

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

3 career meetings, newest first

Jun 12, 2026

The HSBC Championships - London

G Grass · 2nd Round

647
75
60
Rybakina

Jun 13, 2025

LTA London Championships - London

G Grass · Quarterfinals

46
647
Maria

Oct 3, 2023

China Open - Beijing

H Hard · 2nd Round

75
60
Rybakina

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeRybakinaMaria
1 or more100%100%
3 or more94%58%
5 or more88%42%
10 or more31%8%
15 or more13%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricRybakinaMaria
W-L15–28–5
Avg odds1.472.04
ROI %+28.5%-6.7%
Units P/L+4.85u-0.87u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricRybakinaMaria
Countries12
Events12
Matches15
Distance0 mi · 0 km—
RouteROUUKR → TUR

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Maria's 60%).

OpponentRybakinaMaria
Taylor Townsend
W
63
64
L
76
36
26
Diana Shnaider
W
64
64
L
26
57
Dayana Yastremska
W
64
67
63
W
61
62
Caty Mcnally
W
61
62
L
64
67
16
Talia Gibson
W
62
62
W
60
63
Elise Mertens
L
67
16
L
57
06
Yulia Putintseva
W
63
63
W
64
64
Tereza Valentova
W
62
63
W
63
75
Jasmine Paolini
W
63
62
W
64
63
Maria Sakkari
W
64
61
W
63
63

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Rybakina
LWWWWWWW
L

Alina Charaeva

China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round

63
46
36

Oct 3

W

Aryna Sabalenka

U.S. Open - New York · Final

64
57
62

Sep 12

W

Coco Gauff

U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals

36
64
64

Sep 11

W

Qinwen Zheng

U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals

36
61
64

Sep 9

W

Naomi Osaka

U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round

61
64

Sep 7

W

Yuliia Starodubtseva

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

766
63

Sep 6

W

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

62
64

Sep 4

W

Thea Frodin

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

63
62

Sep 1

Maria
WWWWLLWL
W

Madison Brengle

W100 Templeton · Final

63
64

Oct 4

W

Malaika Rapolu

W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals

60
63

Oct 2

W

Lea Ma

W100 Templeton · 2nd Round

61
62

Oct 1

W

Lucciana Perez Alarcon

W100 Templeton · 1st Round

61
62

Sep 30

L

Taylor Townsend

Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round

760
36
26

Sep 14

L

Nikola Bartunkova

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

765
26
36

Sep 3

W

Jelena Ostapenko

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

46
61
62

Sep 3

L

Diana Shnaider

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

26
57

Aug 15

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ RybakinaRybakina ahead↓ Maria

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–72 matches

MetricRybakinaMaria
Matches won83%53%
Sets won74%55%
Games won58%53%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageRybakinaMaria
WTA 50011
WTA 100010

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceRybakinaMaria
Hard10
Grass11

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Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria FAQ

Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head 2–1 over 3 meetings.