Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#2 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
83 meetings · sets 4–3
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Elena Rybakina and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2023; Elena Rybakina leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at China Open - Beijing in 2023 on hard. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 4 sets to Maria's 3. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at The HSBC Championships - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 39/57 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 62% | 8/13 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 26/70 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 60% | 37/62 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 5/7 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 46/49 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 39/49 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 1, Maria 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 12, 2026
The HSBC Championships - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jun 13, 2025
LTA London Championships - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Oct 3, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–3 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | +6.4% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.90u | +2.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Maria's 60%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | W 64 64 | L 26 57 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 64 67 63 | W 61 62 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 61 62 | L 64 67 16 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 62 | W 60 63 |
| Elise Mertens | L 67 16 | L 57 06 |
| Yulia Putintseva | W 63 63 | W 64 64 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 62 63 | W 63 75 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 62 | W 64 63 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 64 61 | W 63 63 |
| Veronika Erjavec | W 62 62 | L 46 76 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Coco Gauff
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Liudmila Samsonova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Ann Li
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Daria Kasatkina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–70 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 81% | 50% |
| Sets won | 73% | 52% |
| Games won | 58% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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