Dominic Thiem vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Dominic Thiem and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 8 times since 2015; Dominic Thiem leads 7–1. Their first meeting came at Gstaad in 2015 on clay. On hard courts Thiem leads 4–1. On clay courts Thiem leads 3–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Thiem leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Thiem has taken 15 sets to Busta's 7. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Thiem | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dominic Thiem | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 53% | 18/34 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 44% | 8/18 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 46% | 24/52 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 48% | 14/29 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 59% | 13/22 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 67% | 10/15 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 89% | 24/27 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 67% | 18/27 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Thiem 2, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Thiem
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Aug 29, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 19, 2019
Vienna
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 8, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 6, 2017
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Feb 26, 2017
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Final
Sep 3, 2016
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Feb 10, 2016
Buenos Aires
C Clay · Round of 32
Jul 31, 2015
Gstaad
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.47 |
| ROI % | - | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | - | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | — | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luciano Darderi
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round
Oct 22
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 26
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 23
Juan Pablo Varillas
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 15
Gael Monfils
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · 1st Round
Jun 24
Otto Virtanen
Roland Garros · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 22
Franco Agamenone
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 20
Thanasi Kokkinakis
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 23
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–58 matches
| Metric | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 62% |
| Sets won | - | 58% |
| Games won | - | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 1 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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