Dominic Thiem vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Dominic Thiem and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 8 times since 2015; Dominic Thiem leads 7–1. Their first meeting came at Gstaad in 2015 on clay. On hard courts Thiem leads 4–1. On clay courts Thiem leads 3–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Thiem leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Thiem has taken 15 sets to Busta's 7. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at US Open (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Thiem | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dominic Thiem | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 57% | 23/40 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 50% | 10/20 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 45% | 27/60 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 47% | 18/38 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 57% | 12/21 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 63% | 10/16 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 89% | 31/35 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 66% | 23/35 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Thiem 2, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Thiem
🎯 Baseliner
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 57% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 247 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Dominic Thiem.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Aug 30, 2022
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Oct 19, 2019
Vienna
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 8, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 6, 2017
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Feb 26, 2017
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Final
Sep 3, 2016
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Feb 10, 2016
Buenos Aires
C Clay · Round of 32
Jul 31, 2015
Gstaad
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.29 |
| ROI % | - | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | - | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luciano Darderi
Vienna · Round of 32
Oct 22
Ben Shelton
US Open · Round of 128
Aug 26
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Kitzbuhel · Round of 32
Jul 23
Juan Pablo Varillas
Gstaad · Round of 32
Jul 15
Gael Monfils
Mallorca · Round of 32
Jun 24
Otto Virtanen
Roland Garros · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 22
Franco Agamenone
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 20
Thanasi Kokkinakis
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 23
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–65 matches
| Metric | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 65% |
| Sets won | - | 60% |
| Games won | - | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Thiem | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 1 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.