Denis Shapovalov vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇦Denis Shapovalov
#47 · 27 yrs · L
3 meetings · sets 8–4
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#209 · 33 yrs · R
5wDenis Shapovalov and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 3 times since 2020; Denis Shapovalov leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2020 on clay. On hard courts Shapovalov leads 2–0. Shapovalov has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 8 sets to Baena's 4. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 8/18 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 5/18 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 15/36 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 30% | 7/23 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 8/13 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 6/10 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 15/18 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 44% | 8/18 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 1, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 2, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 1, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -7.8% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.86u | -2.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 1,847 mi · 2,972 km | — |
| Route | MEX → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Shapovalov and Baena posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | L 36 67 | L 46 36 |
| Alex Molcan | L 46 46 | L 60 36 46 |
| Alexander Blockx | L 46 64 36 | L 67 63 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Adrian Mannarino
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Final
Aug 1
Cameron Norrie
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Dalibor Svrcina
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rinky Hijikata
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Pablo Carreno Busta
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–47 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 55% |
| Sets won | 43% | 54% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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