Denis Shapovalov vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇦Denis Shapovalov
#42 · 27 yrs · L
3 meetings · sets 8–4
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#258 · 33 yrs · R
5wDenis Shapovalov and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 3 times since 2020; Denis Shapovalov leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2020 on clay. On hard courts Shapovalov leads 2–0. Shapovalov has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 8 sets to Baena's 4. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 10/22 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 18/39 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 9/26 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 10/22 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 1, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 2, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 1, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 41% | 7/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | +12.3% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.09u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km | — |
| Route | CHN → JPN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Shapovalov and Baena posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | L 36 67 | L 46 36 |
| Alex Molcan | L 46 46 | L 60 36 46 |
| Alexander Blockx | L 46 64 36 | L 67 63 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–47 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 51% |
| Sets won | 52% | 51% |
| Games won | 51% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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