Denis Shapovalov vs Hugo GastonPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Hugo Gaston have met 3 times since 2024; Denis Shapovalov leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Open Sud de France - Montpellier in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Shapovalov leads 2–1. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 5 sets to Gaston's 2. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at Rotterdam (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Hugo Gaston | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 10/22 | 66% | 21/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 18/39 | 36% | 20/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 9/26 | 47% | 16/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 83% | 24/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 10/22 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 2, Gaston 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Feb 11, 2024
Rotterdam
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Feb 6, 2024
Open 13 Provence - Marseille
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 30, 2024
Open Sud de France - Montpellier
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Hugo Gaston | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 41% | 7/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | +12.3% | -2.1% |
| Units P/L | +2.09u | -0.30u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km | 103 mi · 165 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Shapovalov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Gaston's 38%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Sho Shimabukuro | W 75 61 | W 64 64 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 62 63 | W 62 64 |
| Jaime Faria | L 46 57 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Luca Van Assche | W 60 64 76 | L 46 46 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 26 16 | L 26 63 46 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 57 64 | L 36 46 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 62 36 64 | L 16 46 26 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 36 26 | L |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–60 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 57% |
| Sets won | 52% | 54% |
| Games won | 51% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.